Opportunity Knocks for Williams
The New England Patriots visit the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football to open Week 7, and our top prop is on Kyle Williams’ receiving yards. New England is short on healthy wide receivers. Mack Hollins is on IR, Romeo Doubs went on IR after getting hurt last week, and A.J. Brown has been limited in practice with an ankle injury. That opens the door for Williams to handle a larger role, and I think this line is still catching up to that opportunity.
Matchup Details
Game: New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears
Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 22, 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Soldier Field
Location: Chicago, Illinois
Williams’ Role Just Changed
Williams went from a 0% route share to running a route on 68% of dropbacks once Doubs went down last week, playing exclusively in 11 personnel. He finished with 91 receiving yards, including a 34-yard touchdown. It’s worth remembering that New England played with a heavily positive game script for much of that game. In a more neutral or negative script, Williams likely would have run even more routes, since the Patriots would have spent more time in 11 personnel.
A Better Game Environment
The Patriots are three-point road underdogs in a game with a 51.5-point total, which sets up a much better environment for 11 personnel and passing volume. Chicago should help with that. The Bears have faced 11 personnel at the sixth-highest rate in the league at 64.7%, and that number jumps to 70.7% in games with Caleb Williams under center. Chicago has also allowed the 13th-most passing yards per game to wide receivers despite facing some weak offenses and benefiting from extreme rain. I think there’s room for that production to regress toward a more favorable matchup for opposing receivers, much like we saw against Carolina and Green Bay.
The Schematic Fit Works
The coverage matchup is another reason to like this over. Williams has been far more effective against man coverage than zone, ranking 12th among 120 wide receivers in fantasy points per route run against man this season. Chicago plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league at 43.7%, giving Williams a chance to exploit a tendency that suits his strengths.
The Route Math Gets Us There
Williams’ career yards per route run sits at 1.76. He’s never played alongside a receiver of Brown’s caliber, though Brown is limited and there’s a chance we get lucky with him sitting. Williams already ran 21 routes last week in a game where New England didn’t need to throw much. Even cutting his efficiency down to one yard per route, that route volume alone would be enough to clear this line.
One Shot Downfield Could Do It
I view last week’s route share as a reasonable floor, with a real chance his workload climbs in a competitive or trailing game script. Williams doesn’t need to replicate last week’s breakout. He’s a long average depth of target player with one of the best deep-ball throwers in the league getting him the ball, so a single moderate completion downfield could be all it takes. With the Patriots shorthanded at receiver, a favorable game environment, and a Bears defense that leans on man coverage, 18.5 yards is too low for a player with a career 1.76 yards per route run and this kind of guaranteed route involvement.
Patriots vs. Bears Best Bet
WR Kyle Williams (NE) OVER 18.5 Rec Yards
Odds subject to change
