Underdogs Bite Back in Week 6
Favorites gave the books some relief in Week 5, but the dogs took it right back. Favorites and underdogs split 7-7 straight up, but underdogs went 8-6 against the spread. Road teams stayed hot at 8-6 both straight up and ATS. The biggest shock came in Los Angeles, where Arizona beat the Rams 18-16 as a 12.5-point underdog. The worst news came out of the NFC East, where all four teams lost and the two-time defending division champions Philadelphia Eagles lost quarterback Jalen Hurts for the season.
Buy, Sell or Bet: Our NFL Experts at the One-Third Mark
A third of the regular season is in the books. Our NFL Experts break down who’s for real, who’s fading and where they see futures value on the road to Super Bowl LXI.
VicksPicks
Jaguars to Win the Super Bowl +1300
For a futures bet, I’d look at the Jaguars to win the Super Bowl. QB Trevor Lawrence has the talent to elevate their offense, and they have enough playmakers to give opposing defenses problems. If the defense keeps improving and the offense finds more consistency, Jacksonville has the potential to be a dangerous playoff team. If you want a shorter path, they’re +600 to win the AFC.
Cleveland Cam
Sell the Browns
As a lifelong Browns fan, this hurts, but I’m selling this 4-2 start. All four wins came by four points or fewer, and QB Deshaun Watson has been sacked a league-high 24 times. Winning this ugly won’t last.
The Rams Are in Trouble
The NFL’s top offense scored just nine points in 59 minutes of an 18-16 home loss to Arizona. Then Monday brought more bad news: WR Davante Adams (hamstring, 6-10 weeks), DT Poona Ford (torn triceps, season), DT Kobie Turner (groin, IR) and K Blake Grupe (torn ACL). With EDGE Myles Garrett still sidelined, this 2-4 team has a steep NFC West climb ahead.
Texans to Win the AFC +2500
Houston has bounced back from 0-4 with two straight wins, including a 34-31 walk-off over the Jags at Wembley. QB C.J. Stroud threw three TDs with zero sacks allowed, and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. now joins WR Nico Collins and WR Jaylin Noel. This price still reflects the 0-4 team, and I’m not buying that version. For a bigger swing, they’re +3000 to win the Super Bowl.
Inside the Numbers - Week 6
Favorites went 7-7 (50%) straight up and 6-8 (36%) ATS. Road teams went 8-6 straight up and covered eight times. The over went 7-7.
*Jacksonville was the home team in Sunday’s International Game against Houston.
| Category | Week 6 | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Up: Favorites-Underdogs | 7-7 | 58-33-1 |
| Straight Up: Home-Away | 6-8 | 47-44-1 |
| ATS: Favorites-Underdogs | 5-9 | 43-49 |
| ATS: Home-Away | 6-8 | 42-50 |
| Total: Over-Under | 7-7 | 46-45-1 |
Take the Points
Six underdogs won outright in Week 6, four as the road team and three at home. Arizona never scored more than six points in a quarter but held the Rams to 16 for the upset of the season. Tennessee got its first win of the season, scoring 20 fourth-quarter points in Indianapolis.
- Arizona (+12.5. +625) defeated L.A. Rams, 18-16
- Tennessee (+5.5, +240) defeated Indianapolis, 26-20
- Cleveland (+3.5, +150) defeated Baltimore, 13-10
- Houston (+2.5, +120) defeated Jacksonville, 34-31
- Denver (+2.5, +125) defeated Seattle, 17-14 (OT)
- Green Bay (+1.5, +100) defeated Dallas, 23-13
Green Bay won for the second straight week as a short home underdog, outscoring Chicago and Dallas 54-20 over that stretch. Cleveland trailed 10-0 after the first quarter, then shut out Baltimore the rest of the way. Denver led Seattle 14-3 at halftime, gave up 11 fourth-quarter points, then won it with a field goal in overtime.
Two more underdogs covered without winning. Las Vegas (+4.5) scored 17 fourth-quarter points but fell 33-30 to Buffalo, and Washington (+7.5) lost 23-17 in San Francisco after trailing 20-3 at halftime in the Monday Night finale.
Division Leaders
Six weeks in, a few teams are already pulling away, while several divisions look like they’ll come down to the wire.
Running Away From the Pack
NFC West: San Francisco (6-0) holds a three-game lead over defending champion Seattle (3-3). The 49ers have already beaten the Rams, Arizona and Seattle within the division.
AFC West: Kansas City (5-0) handled the Chargers 22-6 and leads Denver (4-2) by 1.5 games. The Chiefs have allowed just 83 points, the second best defensive scoring team in the NFL.
NFC North: Minnesota (5-0) was on bye but still leads Chicago and Green Bay (both 4-2) by 1.5 games. The Vikings have allowed a league-low 64 points.
AFC South: Jacksonville (4-2) lost to Houston but still holds a two-game lead over the Texans and Colts (both 2-4).
AFC East: Buffalo (5-1) leads New England (4-2) by a game after winning in Las Vegas.
Up for Grabs
AFC North: The tightest race in football. Baltimore, Cleveland and Pittsburgh are all 4-2, and Cincinnati (3-2) is right behind them after its bye. Cleveland’s 13-10 win over Baltimore pulled the Browns even, and Pittsburgh joined them with a 26-19 overtime win in Tampa Bay.
NFC South: Carolina (3-2) leads Atlanta and New Orleans (both 2-4) after winning in Philadelphia. The Panthers have beaten Detroit and the Eagles in their last two games and look like the class of a weak division.
NFC East: Nobody in the division has a winning record. More on that below.
The NFC Least
It’s been a rough two weeks for the NFC East. All four teams lost in Week 6, and the division hasn’t produced a win since Week 4. Over the last two weeks, NFC East teams are 0-6-2, and the only “results” that weren’t losses were the Giants and Commanders tying each other. The Giants lead the division at 3-2-1 despite losing on Sunday.
Philadelphia (2-4): The Eagles have won the division the last two seasons, but that streak is in serious jeopardy. They’ve lost four straight, including 25-14 at home to Carolina as underdogs, and now Hurts is out for the season. Last week the conversation was about a possible top-10 pick. Without their quarterback, that’s starting to look likely.
Dallas (2-4): The Cowboys trailed Green Bay 17-0 at halftime and lost 23-13. That follows a home loss to a winless Tampa Bay team as 9.5-point favorites in Week 5.
N.Y. Giants (3-2-1): The Giants trailed New Orleans 27-10 after three quarters, scored 17 in the fourth and still lost 34-27 as 1.5-point favorites. They still lead the division.
Washington (1-4-1): The Commanders were the only NFC East team to cover, losing 23-17 as 7.5-point underdogs in San Francisco. They’re winless in their last three games.
With Philadelphia losing its quarterback, the division is wide open, and it may not take many wins to claim it.
Totals Breakdown
The over went 7-7 in Week 6 and sits at 47-46 for the season.
The biggest miss came in the International Game, where Houston and Jacksonville combined for 65 points on a total of 42, 23 over the number and the most points of the week. New Orleans-N.Y. Giants (61 on 45.5) went over by 15.5, and Buffalo-Las Vegas (63 on 54) cleared the number by nine.
The week’s highest totals (54) went in opposite directions. Buffalo-Las Vegas went over, while Dallas-Green Bay finished with just 36 points, 18 under and the biggest under of the week. Arizona-L.A. Rams (34 on 51) also fell 17 short.
Baltimore-Cleveland produced the fewest points of the week at 23, finishing 16.5 under a 39.5 total. L.A. Chargers-Kansas City (28 on 41.5) went under by 13.5, and Washington-San Francisco (40 on 51.5) fell 11.5 short. Seattle-Denver went to overtime and still finished 9.5 under a 40.5.
Perfect Over Records (5-0): Detroit
Worst ATS Record: L.A. Chargers (0-5-1)
On Bye in Week 6: Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Minnesota
