NFL Week 5 Best Bets:
Top Running Back Props to Target

Week 5 NFL Prop Best Bets: Follow the Rotation

Two running backs and two prop lines that don’t match how their backfields are being run. Woody Marks is splitting work evenly in Houston but is priced like a backup, 15 yards below his teammate. Ollie Gordon is priced off one explosive second half, while his coach is telling us the other back is about to get more work. Here’s the breakdown on both.

Texans at Titans: (HOU) Woody Marks

Match Details

Location: Nashville, Tennessee

Venue: Nissan Stadium

Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026

Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Buy Before the Market Catches Up

I think this is a good spot to buy into Marks before the market catches up to what Houston is doing with its backfield. This has been a pretty even split between Marks and David Montgomery, but the rushing props don’t reflect that. Montgomery sits at 44.5 yards, compared to just 29.5 for Marks.

The Subtle Rotation Change

Houston made a subtle change to the rotation last week. Through the first three games, Montgomery would get the first two drives. After that, the Texans rotated by series, with Marks coming in for the third possession and every other one from there. Last week, Montgomery still got the opening drive, but the rotation started right after it, with Marks taking the second drive. I think that’s an important development, even if it hasn’t fully shown up in the box score yet.

Why the Box Score Is Lying

The production hasn’t looked like a 50/50 split because Montgomery’s drives have lasted longer, giving him more chances to pile up carries. I expect that to even out over time. I think the books are chasing recent production rather than properly accounting for how Houston is distributing the snaps.

A Game Script Built for the Run

The game script is another major positive. Houston is a 7.5-point favorite against a struggling Tennessee team, and I expect the Texans to sustain drives and lean on the run. In that kind of game, Marks can get enough carries to clear this number without needing an unusually efficient performance.

Week 5 Best Bet

I don’t think there should be a 15-yard gap between these two backs when the workload is trending toward an even split. Montgomery’s recent box scores have made him the more expensive option. But Marks has a clear path to more rushing volume, and the expected game script should help both backs. I’ll take the discount on Marks at a number that only requires 30 yards. If you have FanDuel, it’s even better at 28.5.

Bengals at Dolphins: (MIA) Ollie Gordon

Match Details

Location: Miami Gardens, Florida

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026

Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

One Half Doesn’t Make a Bell Cow

This feels like a pretty clear overreaction to what happened last week. After De’Von Achane went down, it was clear going into that game that Miami would use a committee with Gordon and Jaylen Wright. The bigger question was how the workload would actually be split.

Who Really Led the Backfield

Gordon finished with the huge game, but Wright was the one who started. The two rotated heavily over the first five drives, with Wright playing 10 snaps to Gordon’s 8 and actually getting more carries. Gordon didn’t separate himself until after halftime, when he broke a 53-yard run. From that point on, Gordon dominated the second-half snaps, playing 14 to just 2 for Wright.

Hafley Is Telling Us Something

I don’t think we should assume that second-half workload is the new baseline. Jeff Hafley specifically talked about wanting to get Wright more involved this week: “Wright didn’t get many attempts last week. I’m excited to see him, going forward. He’s going to. I thought he had a good week and we’ll see what he can do this week with more plays.” That’s important coachspeak when we’re trying to figure out whether Gordon’s workload has actually consolidated.

Chasing Points in Miami

The matchup isn’t the biggest reason I’m betting the under, but I still think Cincinnati has the edge in the trenches. More importantly, the Bengals are 6.5-point favorites, which is a significant concern for Miami’s rushing volume. The Dolphins have averaged just 11.5 points per game through four weeks. I’m not expecting many sustained drives in a game where they’re likely chasing points.

Week 5 Best Bet

That’s why I’m more interested in the Gordon under than the Wright over. I don’t need to project Wright for some massive workload. I just need Gordon’s workload to come in below what the market is pricing after one explosive second half. If Wright gets back to the rotation we saw early in the Minnesota game and Miami spends more of this game playing from behind, Gordon has a pretty difficult path to 46 rushing yards.