Top Prop for the League's Best WR
The Cincinnati Bengals host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 1:00 PM ET window of NFL Week 4, and our top prop of Sunday is on Ja'Marr Chase's receiving yards. I think this line is simply too low for the type of game environment we're getting for someone who, for my money, is the best WR in the sport.
Matchup Details
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Paycor Stadium
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Television: CBS
Line: Bengals -2.5, Total 51.5
The Line Is Overweighting Week 1
The total is sitting at 51.5, which tells us the market is expecting a high-scoring game, and I agree. Ja'MarrChase has already seen 25 targets through three weeks, with games of 12, 75 and 98 yards. I think this line is factoring in that Week 1 outlier a little too much.
Last season, even with quarterback Joe Burrow missing time, he averaged 88.3 yards per game.
Chase Thrives in High-Total Games
Chase has very strong historical splits for this line. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged 116.3 receiving yards per game in games with a total above 50 points. That's obviously not something I'm expecting him to replicate every time, but it shows how much his ceiling rises when we're in these high-total environments.
Bengals Should Keep Throwing
I also think this is a good spot to expect Cincinnati to keep throwing. Chase is still the focal point of this passing game, and the Bengals have already shown they're willing to feed him volume. This game script projects to be the most favorable of the season for Cincinnati.
Chase Doesn't Need a Massive Game
He just had seven catches on nine targets against Houston despite Cincinnati winning 20-6, including two touchdowns. At 79.5, I don't need a massive Chase game to cash this. In a game where I'm expecting plenty of scoring opportunities and a high volume of passing, I think this number is asking for too little from one of the league's premier receivers.
JAGUARS BENGALS WEEK 4 BEST BET
WR Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) OVER 79.5 Rec Yards
Odds subject to change
VicksPicks Brings the Heat to Sunday's Top Prop
VicksPicks has dominated the NFL props betting market, going 17-3 (85%) in his last 20 selections and that includes a run of 12 straight winners.
All of his documented results are listed below and on the PropBomb feature.
