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Browns-Steelers TNF Best Bet: Rookie Set to Cash

Full-Time Snaps, Part-Time Price for Concepcion

The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers to kick off NFL Week 4 on Thursday Night Football, and we're backing a rookie receiver whose playing time just took a massive jump. For this Browns vs. Steelers best bet, I'm targeting the receptions prop for a first-round pick who is now on the field for nearly every dropback, while his line is still priced for the part-time player he used to be.

Matchup Details

Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 1, 8:15 PM ET

Venue: Huntington Bank Field

Location: Cleveland, Ohio

Television: Prime Video

Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total 38.5

KC Concepcion's Role Is Exploding

Through his first three games, KC Concepcion has seen 5, 6 and 9 targets, good for a 24.4% target share. The rookie has already shown he can command looks in this offense.

The biggest development has been his playing time. After running a route on 65% of dropbacks in Week 1 and 74% in Week 2, Concepcion jumped to 94.7% last week. That checks out for a team that wants to get its first-round pick more involved. He also ran 58.6% of his routes from the slot last week, which is exactly where I want him operating when I'm chasing targets.

Why the Concepcion Receptions Prop Is Stale

This is the biggest reason I think this number is stale. The prop closed at 3.5 (-150) last week in an admittedly strong matchup, but the market hasn't accounted for his huge jump in playing time. Concepcion is now a full-time player, and we're still being asked to clear the same 3.5 receptions line.

Browns vs. Steelers Matchup Fits His Role

The matchup itself is relatively neutral. Cleveland is a 2.5-point home underdog, so I expect a slightly negative game script at minimum, which should keep the Browns' passing volume elevated.

Concepcion is a short-aDOT player, so I'm much more interested in his receptions prop than his yardage. He has a 3.9-yard aDOT this season, and his role is built around underneath work and getting the ball into his hands quickly so he can create after the catch.

The Steelers' pass rush makes that role even more valuable. If Cleveland is forced to get the ball out quickly, Concepcion's underneath role is exactly what the offense will lean on.

The rookie has shown he can earn targets, and now he's playing essentially every passing snap. At 3.5, the market is still pricing him like the part-time player from Weeks 1 and 2 rather than the full-time receiver he became last week.