Explosive props.Descriptive edges.
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NFO vs CRY
Over 3.5 Total Cards
+104 @ FD
Why we like it
Nottingham is currently the 3rd-best in the league in that department with 13 cards - 2.6 per game. We saw four or more cards in three of their five games (60%).
NE vs LVR
Eli Raridon (NE) OVER 9.5 Receiving Yards
-113 @ FD
Why we like it
Raridon returned last week and immediately played 22 early-down snaps in single-tight-end sets compared to 19 for Henry. He finished with 19 routes on 42 dropbacks, so he's already seeing enough passing-game involvement to make this number attainable.
HOU vs TEN
Woody Marks (HOU) OVER 29.5 RushYds
-114 @ CZR
Why we like it
The Houston rotation began immediately after the opening drive last week with Marks taking the second drive. The Texans are a 7.5-point favorite against a struggling Tennessee team, and I expect the Texans to have opportunities to sustain drives and lean on the run.
CLE vs NYJ
New York Jets ML
-123 @ NOVIG
Why we like it
The Jets give up explosives on 15% of snaps, fourth-best in the league, and their adjusted pass defense ranks eighth. Cleveland's run defense is 25th in value allowed. Jets are better than their record and Browns are worse.
HOU vs KSU
ReShaun Sanford (HOU) O54.5 Rush Yds
-115 @ FD
Why we like it
He outcarried Hughes 18 to 10 last week and 17 to 16 the week before. Kansas State ranks 133rd in 2nd level yards and 107th open field yards and ranks 13th %ile in Rush Explosive.
NCST vs WAKE
CJ Bailey (NCST) U274.5 PassYards
-115 @ FD
Why we like it
He faces a team that is 99th %ile in Pass Explosives and rank 72nd %ile in Yds/DB. It is projected to rain and NC State is down a starting RB, Safety, and LG.
BRE vs AVL
Over 2.5 Total Goals
-138 @ 365
Why we like it
They have scored three goals in each of their last three matches across all competitions, suggesting their offense is finally finding its rhythm. These teams have combined to go over 2.5 goals in 10 of their 14 matches this season (71%).
CHE vs. BOU | O2.5 Goals & BTTS - Parlay
-125 @ 365
Why we like it
Chelsea have the third-best attack and the worst defense in the league. Bournemouth have been solid for this bet, especially on the road, where all three of their away games across competitions produced both BTTS and over 2.5 goals.
KU vs UTAH
Utah -15
-110 @ MGM
Why we like it
Utah is #1 in the country in Net EPA/Play and top-7 on both sides of the ball. Kansas is 107th in Adjusted EPA/Pass while Utah is #1 in the country in HAVOC.
ARIZ vs WVU
Noah Fifita (ARIZ) OVER 276.5 Pass Yards
-115 @ FD
Why we like it
West Virginia ranks worst in conference in Pass succ and Pass PPA. WVU ranks 2nd %ile in YDS/DB and 4th %ile in Pass EPA/Play.
BHA vs SUN
Brighton DNB/AH0
-146 @ FD, DK, MGM
Why we like it
Brighton have been one of the best teams in the Premier League so far, and their third-place position is well deserved. The Black Cats lead the Premier League with 29 accurate long balls per match, so losing their target man could significantly disrupt one of their main attacking strengths.
SDSU vs ORST
Oregon State -14
-106 @ MGM
Why we like it
The Aztecs offense is 131st in Adjusted Offense and 134th in EPA/Pass. Oregon State is a top-25 passing offense going against a San Diego State pass defense that is 102nd.
UAB vs MEM
Memphis -14
-108 @ NOVIG
Why we like it
UAB is 104th in Adjusted Success Rate allowed and 106th in Adjusted EPA/Rush allowed. Their offensive line is a problem as UAB is 132nd in sack rate allowed and 131st in pressure allowed.
KSU vs HOU
Rodney Fields (KSU) UNDER 53.5 RushYds
-113 @ FD
Why we like it
Kansas State is playing one of the best run defenses in the conference ranking #2nd in 2nd level yards and 2nd line yards. I think this is a super high line with a back who hasnt seen 12+ carries besides their Washington State and Nicholls matchup.
PSU vs USC
Rocco Becht (PSU) O230.5 Pass Yards
-112 @ FD
Why we like it
USC is bottom 100 in pass ppa, success rate, and pass explosives. When not facing top defenses, Rocco Becht is 2/2 in this line going 270 against Marshall and 268 vs Temple.
NFO vs CRY
Over 3.5 Total Cards
+104 @ FD
Why we like it
Nottingham is currently the 3rd-best in the league in that department with 13 cards - 2.6 per game. We saw four or more cards in three of their five games (60%).
NE vs LVR
Eli Raridon (NE) OVER 9.5 Receiving Yards
-113 @ FD
Why we like it
Raridon returned last week and immediately played 22 early-down snaps in single-tight-end sets compared to 19 for Henry. He finished with 19 routes on 42 dropbacks, so he's already seeing enough passing-game involvement to make this number attainable.
HOU vs TEN
Woody Marks (HOU) OVER 29.5 RushYds
-114 @ CZR
Why we like it
The Houston rotation began immediately after the opening drive last week with Marks taking the second drive. The Texans are a 7.5-point favorite against a struggling Tennessee team, and I expect the Texans to have opportunities to sustain drives and lean on the run.
CLE vs NYJ
New York Jets ML
-123 @ NOVIG
Why we like it
The Jets give up explosives on 15% of snaps, fourth-best in the league, and their adjusted pass defense ranks eighth. Cleveland's run defense is 25th in value allowed. Jets are better than their record and Browns are worse.
HOU vs KSU
ReShaun Sanford (HOU) O54.5 Rush Yds
-115 @ FD
Why we like it
He outcarried Hughes 18 to 10 last week and 17 to 16 the week before. Kansas State ranks 133rd in 2nd level yards and 107th open field yards and ranks 13th %ile in Rush Explosive.
NCST vs WAKE
CJ Bailey (NCST) U274.5 PassYards
-115 @ FD
Why we like it
He faces a team that is 99th %ile in Pass Explosives and rank 72nd %ile in Yds/DB. It is projected to rain and NC State is down a starting RB, Safety, and LG.
BRE vs AVL
Over 2.5 Total Goals
-138 @ 365
Why we like it
They have scored three goals in each of their last three matches across all competitions, suggesting their offense is finally finding its rhythm. These teams have combined to go over 2.5 goals in 10 of their 14 matches this season (71%).
CHE vs. BOU | O2.5 Goals & BTTS - Parlay
-125 @ 365
Why we like it
Chelsea have the third-best attack and the worst defense in the league. Bournemouth have been solid for this bet, especially on the road, where all three of their away games across competitions produced both BTTS and over 2.5 goals.
KU vs UTAH
Utah -15
-110 @ MGM
Why we like it
Utah is #1 in the country in Net EPA/Play and top-7 on both sides of the ball. Kansas is 107th in Adjusted EPA/Pass while Utah is #1 in the country in HAVOC.
ARIZ vs WVU
Noah Fifita (ARIZ) OVER 276.5 Pass Yards
-115 @ FD
Why we like it
West Virginia ranks worst in conference in Pass succ and Pass PPA. WVU ranks 2nd %ile in YDS/DB and 4th %ile in Pass EPA/Play.
BHA vs SUN
Brighton DNB/AH0
-146 @ FD, DK, MGM
Why we like it
Brighton have been one of the best teams in the Premier League so far, and their third-place position is well deserved. The Black Cats lead the Premier League with 29 accurate long balls per match, so losing their target man could significantly disrupt one of their main attacking strengths.
SDSU vs ORST
Oregon State -14
-106 @ MGM
Why we like it
The Aztecs offense is 131st in Adjusted Offense and 134th in EPA/Pass. Oregon State is a top-25 passing offense going against a San Diego State pass defense that is 102nd.
UAB vs MEM
Memphis -14
-108 @ NOVIG
Why we like it
UAB is 104th in Adjusted Success Rate allowed and 106th in Adjusted EPA/Rush allowed. Their offensive line is a problem as UAB is 132nd in sack rate allowed and 131st in pressure allowed.
KSU vs HOU
Rodney Fields (KSU) UNDER 53.5 RushYds
-113 @ FD
Why we like it
Kansas State is playing one of the best run defenses in the conference ranking #2nd in 2nd level yards and 2nd line yards. I think this is a super high line with a back who hasnt seen 12+ carries besides their Washington State and Nicholls matchup.
PSU vs USC
Rocco Becht (PSU) O230.5 Pass Yards
-112 @ FD
Why we like it
USC is bottom 100 in pass ppa, success rate, and pass explosives. When not facing top defenses, Rocco Becht is 2/2 in this line going 270 against Marshall and 268 vs Temple.
Verified Track Record · Since 2021
Live cumulative units across NBA, WNBA, NFL, NCAAF, EPL & the 2026 World Cup. Drawdowns included.
Verified Track Record
Live cumulative units across NBA, WNBA, NFL, NCAAF, EPL & the 2026 World Cup. Drawdowns included.
THE LUNCH BREAK
Week 5
Episode 5
Bob Stanley (Prop Holliday) goes solo while Cleveland Cam is at Disney World. It’s a prop-heavy episode with Cam’s two plays, Bob’s rushing and receiving props across five games (including SNF and MNF), refs deciding games, a Survivor check-in, the Touchdown Liquor Cabinet, and a +2552 Lunch Money parlay.
Watch on YouTube
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