NFL Week 3 Best Bets:
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Week 3 NFL Prop Best Bets: Trust the Routes

Two receivers, two lines that have been dragged down by thin box scores, and two roles that haven't changed. Isaiah Williams is running nearly every route out of the slot in a dome game where the Jets should be throwing all afternoon. Jordan Addison is running virtually every route for a Vikings offense that gets Kyler Murray back. Here's the breakdown on both.

Jets vs Lions: (NYJ) Isaiah Williams

Match Details

Location: Detroit, Michigan

Venue: Ford Field

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026

Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

The Slot Is His

I had my eye on this prop last week, but my biggest concern was Kenyon Sadiq taking some of Williams' slot work as the first-round pick ramped up from injury. Instead, even in a positive game script, Williams kept a significant role. He ran a route on 85.7% of dropbacks, posted a 14.3% targets per route run, and lined up in the slot on 69% of his routes. That's basically in line with Week 1, when he jumped to a 75% route share after Omar Cooper went down.

The Mason Taylor injury makes me much more comfortable betting this now. Taylor is listed as week-to-week, missed the first two practices, and is trending toward sitting Sunday. That should open up more in-line work for Sadiq instead of having him take slot snaps from Williams. Williams also had a similar usage pattern late last season and was productive with it.

Dome, Underdog, 11 Personnel

I absolutely love the matchup and game environment. The Jets are 6.5-point underdogs in a dome against a Detroit defense I think can be attacked through the air. That should create plenty of pass volume and, more importantly, keep New York in 11 personnel more often, which is exactly where Williams has shown he stays on the field.

I'm not expecting him to suddenly become a high-volume downfield receiver, because his average depth of target is extremely low. But I don't think he needs that with the amount of playing time and underneath work I'm expecting.

Best Bet

The short aDOT is the biggest concern with this number, but the role is too good to get hung up on it. Williams is already averaging 3.5 receptions and 20.5 receiving yards per game through two weeks, and this is the best environment we've seen for the Jets' passing game. With Taylor likely out and Williams still functioning as the WR3, his lines are far too low.

Vikings at Buccaneers: (MIN) Jordan Addison

Match Details

Location: Tampa, Florida

Venue: Raymond James Stadium

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026

Time: 4:05 p.m. ET

Two Ugly Games, One Overcorrection

This feels like a clear overreaction to the first two weeks. Addison opened the season with a 41.5-yard line and was at 39.5 last week. Now we're down to 31.5 after two games with Carson Wentz. The Vikings had just 12 completions in Week 1 and 11 in Week 2, while this week Kyler's completions line sits at 19.5.

The role hasn't gone anywhere. Addison ran 23 of 24 routes last week, so the issue isn't playing time or involvement in the offense. It's been the lack of passing production. His season line is only two catches for 21 yards, and the market is pricing that production rather than the underlying usage.

Kyler Back, Jones Banged Up

I'm expecting a much better environment this week. The Bucs have been very attackable through the air, and their defense has played more like a pass funnel under Todd Bowles. Murray has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to start Sunday.

The backfield could also push Minnesota toward the pass. Jordan Mason is already on IR, and Aaron Jones is now dealing with a knee injury after handling 23 carries last week. Jones did not practice Wednesday, so there's at least some uncertainty about how much Minnesota can lean on the run.

Best Bet

I don't need Addison to become a target hog. I need competent quarterback play and a normal number of passing opportunities, and those two things alone give him a much better chance of clearing this number. If Kyler gives this offense competent play and Addison keeps running virtually every route, 32.5 yards is a low bar. This is mostly a bet on the market overcorrecting for two ugly passing performances.

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