Showtime Returns to Arrowhead
Two weeks of the NFL season are in the books. It's still very early, but some clubs answered the bell in Week 2 while others kept on impressing or disappointing.
Week 2 Observations From Our NFL Experts
VicksPicks
The biggest thing that stood out to me in Week 2 was Patrick Mahomes looking like the Patrick Mahomes we're used to seeing. He put together his best game in years, and the new-look Kansas City offense with Kenneth Walker has looked incredibly dynamic through two weeks. There's still a long way to go, but the Chiefs suddenly look like a completely different offense than the one we saw last season.
The other development I'm watching closely is Tyler Shough. The second-year QB has looked more comfortable with each passing week, and his Week 2 win at Baltimore feels like the one that really put him on the map. His arm talent, mobility and ability to create outside of structure are already showing up, and he's starting to look like a potential superstar in the making.
Cleveland Cam
The NFC West is the class of the league, with Seattle, San Francisco and the L.A. Rams all playing at an elite level. Minnesota can win its division on the strength of the Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores tandem alone once Kyler Murray is back. Meanwhile, Detroit has been worse than expected because that defense is horrible, and Philly is a regular-season team, not a deep playoff team.
New Orleans has been a surprise, despite being outplayed two straight weeks. They could easily be 2-0. At -3.5 against the Raiders in Week 3, the market isn't buying the Saints yet, and neither am I until they do it again this Sunday in their home opener.
In the AFC, Buffalo has taken a bigger step forward than expected. The Ravens lost, but their success rate says they're going to win a lot of football games. Deshaun Watson outdueled Baker Mayfield. Wow. Bo Nix is still Denver's ceiling, and the Chargers look far worse than anyone expected.
VicksPicks Stays Hot
A tip of the cap to VicksPicks, who went 8-3 (73%) on his Core NFL Prop plays in Week 2, including a 3-1 (75%) mark on his one-unit selections.
Inside the Numbers: Chalk Breaks Even
Bettors watched favorites go 11-5 (69%) straight up, but they split 8-8 against the spread, so backing the chalk only broke even before the juice. The 'under' was the story, cashing in 10 of 16 games.
| Category | Week 2 | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Up: Favorites-Underdogs | 11-5 | 23-9 |
| Straight Up: Home-Away | 7-9 | 17-15 |
| ATS: Favorites-Underdogs | 8-8 | 17-15 |
| ATS: Home-Away | 8-8 | 15-17 |
| Total: Over-Under | 6-10 | 15-17 |
Road Dogs Deliver
For the second straight week, some live underdogs took a trip to the cashier, and all five pulled it off as visitors. Leading the way were Shough and the Saints, who, as VicksPicks mentioned above, made a statement in Baltimore. Watson and the Browns weren't far behind in Tampa.
New Orleans (+7.5, +330) defeated Baltimore, 24-17
Cleveland (+7.5, +300) defeated Tampa Bay, 23-19
Las Vegas (+6.5, +250) defeated L.A. Chargers, 26-14
Minnesota (+4.5, +180) defeated Chicago, 9-3
Cincinnati (+2.5, +130) defeated Houston, 20-6
Chargers Running Out of Runway
As Cleveland Cam put it above, the Chargers look far worse than anyone expected. Los Angeles has now lost as a home favorite in both weeks, to Arizona at +400 in the opener and to Las Vegas at +250 in Week 2, by the same 26-14 score.
To say those games were must-wins is an understatement, given what's on tap for Los Angeles. The Chargers play three of their next four on the road, with trips to Buffalo, Seattle and Kansas City, and the lone home game in that stretch is against Denver.
A much-needed bye follows that gauntlet, and after it they'll be staring at the Rams, Texans and Ravens, with Houston the only home matchup.
For bettors who still believe in the Bolts, DraftKings has the Chargers at +240 to make the postseason. The 'No' option is -350.
Totals Breakdown: The Under Takes Over
After some wild shootouts in Week 1, the totals market cooled off in Week 2 with the 'under' going 10-6.
The 'over' only cashed six times, but two of those came in primetime, so the bookmakers likely took it on the chin in the stand-alone spots.
The easiest 'over' came in the game with the highest total of the week (53.5). In Thursday's Week 2 opener, Buffalo ran past Detroit 41-31 as it christened its new stadium with fireworks. That result backs up both of Cleveland Cam's takes: the Bills are ahead of schedule, and the Lions' defense has problems.
The Sunday night finale at Arrowhead also went over, as Mahomes and the Chiefs outlasted the Colts 33-30 in overtime to clear a total of 45.5.
The most notable 'under' was Minnesota's 9-3 road win at Chicago, a game that didn't feature a single touchdown. That was a shocker considering the Bears and Vikings put up 59 and 39 points, respectively, in their Week 1 openers.
Divisional Notebook: NFC West Dominance, AFC South Misery
As Cleveland Cam noted above, the NFC West is living up to the hype as the best group in football, and it has a three-headed monster at the top. Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle rolled Arizona 31-7 on the road, San Francisco's defense held Miami to six points through three quarters in a 35-13 win, and the Rams got on track with a 28-6 beatdown of the Giants on MNF. Combined, those three teams outscored their opponents 94-26 in Week 2, and the Cardinals' lone loss came against a division rival.
Meanwhile, the AFC South is the only group with three 0-2 teams, and all of them have negative point differentials. The division went 0-4 this week. The Colts pushed Kansas City to overtime at Arrowhead before falling 33-30, and Jacksonville led Denver 13-6 heading into the fourth quarter before giving up 14 unanswered points. Houston was the only one that looked outclassed, managing just six points at home in a 20-6 setback to Cincinnati. None of them look overmatched, but the wins against quality opponents just aren't there yet.
Surprisingly, Tennessee turned in a decent effort in a 24-20 loss to Philadelphia and covered as a 6.5-point home underdog. At this point, though, the Titans' defense is well ahead of the offense, and they now hit the road for back-to-back games at the N.Y. Giants and Baltimore.
