The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs close out Week 2 action Sunday night from Arrowhead Stadium, and we're targeting a prop from the visiting side. For this article, I'm zeroing in on the receiving yards market for one Colts pass catcher who's playing a far bigger role than his price suggests.
The Best Bet
WR Josh Downs (IND) OVER 39.5 Rec Yds
Odds Subject to Change
A Role That's Changed More Than the Number Has
The biggest thing for me on this prop is that the market still hasn't fully adjusted to Josh Downs being an every down player in this offense. He ran a route on 93.8% of Indianapolis' dropbacks in Week 1, after playing a much smaller role in previous seasons. He also finished 2025 at just 35.4 receiving yards per game, so 39.5 isn't much of an increase for this change in opportunity.
The Michael Pittman departure is a big part of why I like this. Downs saw a significant bump in 12 personnel usage, playing 10 of 11 snaps in those packages after barely being on the field in two receiver sets in previous seasons. That gives him a much more stable route floor than we've been accustomed to seeing. Week 1 was also encouraging from a usage standpoint despite only finishing with 37 yards. He led the Colts with 32 routes and played on essentially every passing down.
The Matchup and Game Script Line Up
I also like the matchup from a coverage perspective. Kansas City's man tendencies are a good fit for Downs and his ability to create separation underneath. The game script is another positive. The Colts are 6.5 point underdogs with a strong 46.5 point total, so I expect them to be throwing plenty if this game plays out as expected.
Ultimately, I think 39.5 is still pricing Downs too much like the 2025 version of his role. He averaged 35.4 yards per game last year, but the Colts are using him as a full time receiver now. If he's going to continue running routes at this rate and Indianapolis is forced to throw as a substantial underdog, I think we see a pretty meaningful jump in his receiving production.
