Bears and Ravens impress, Broncos and Chargers open flat
The NFL season is here and so are the PropBomb experts with their quick thoughts, predictions and everything else that happened in the previous week. Let's recap Week 1!
Week 1 Observations From Our NFL Experts
Cleveland Cam
The biggest thing that stood out to me in Week 1 was watching Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence and head coach Liam Coen operate like they'd been together for years, not one season. Lawrence going 18-of-23 for for 245 yards and four scores, albeit against Cleveland, is the kind of performance that gets people saying MVP a little early, but it's earned.
Baltimore looked just as scary on the other side, putting up 41 points and 506 yards behind Todd Monken's replacement, proof the machine still runs. Then there's Chicago, who might be the scariest story in the whole league: 59 points, 552 total yards. QB Caleb Williams played like a top-five quarterback in Ben Johnson's system.
The flip side was just as loud. Denver's offense looked completely broken, four sacks and three fumbles from QB Bo Nix in the Broncos' 31-10 loss at Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers didn't fare much better, getting run off the field by Arizona (14-26) with almost nothing going right up front.
Lastly, Detroit's defense is a real worry too; blowing a 21-0 lead and needing overtime isn't a one-week fluke if it keeps happening. The Lions got the win (31-30) but a matchup at Buffalo on a short week (Thursday) will be a much bigger test.
VicksPicks
The biggest thing that stood out to me in Week 1 was Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson looking like an MVP caliber candidate again under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. The Ravens put up 41 points, 31 in the first-half, their wire-to-wire win over the Indianapolis Colts.
In the NFC, there just might not be any stopping the Chicago Bears offense. Chicago put up 59 points, and the combination of QB Caleb Williams, head coach Ben Johnson and that explosive skill group looked like a nightmare matchup. It's obviously way too early, but both offenses immediately looked like they could be problems for the entire league.
Fearless Predictions - After Week 1
Knee-jerk reactions and recency bias are two mistakes bettors make, especially in the week-to-week sports like the NFL. With that being said, for fun, we asked our experts for some early predictions, perhaps if they had a free-roll or bonus bet.
VicksPicks
Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears
Ravens over Bears
Odds subject to change
Cleveland Cam
San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills
49ers over Bills
Odds subject to change
NFL Bonus Prediction
Cleveland Cam
New York Jets to Make Playoffs
Odds subject to change
I know how this sounds. The Jets. Playoffs. Hear me out. Six wins are already on the board: Titans, both Dolphins games, Browns, Cardinals, Raiders. The interesting part is everything else, because this team lives in close games by design. The offensive line is elite, Geno Smith went 19 of 24 for 215 without a sack, and Breece Hall ran for 102. The defense held Tennessee to 195 yards and sacked Cam Ward three times. Six is the floor. Steal a few coin flips and that's nine or ten wins and a wild card. Book it!
Odds Subject to Change
Inside the Numbers - Week 1
16 games in the books, and the books came out ahead more often than not. Favorites went 12-4 (75%) straight up, and bettors who backed the chalk came out slightly ahead too.
Straight Up
Favorites-Underdogs: 12-4
Home-Away: 10-6
Against the Spread
Favorites-Underdogs: 9-7
Home-Away: 7-9
Total
Over-Under: 9-7
The Los Angeles Rams were the designated home team, but this game was actually played in Australia.
Underdogs Prowling
Four teams pulled off upsets, one of them cashed as straight-up underdogs this week.
- Arizona (+8.5, +400) def. L.A. Chargers, 26-14
- San Francisco (+3.5, +180) def. L.A. Rams, 27-7
- N.Y. Giants (+3.5, +150) def. Dallas, 28-20
- N.Y. Jets (+1.5, +100) def. Tennessee, 23-10
Arizona overcoming the largest number (8.5) to win outright makes it the week's biggest upset by the book.The Chargers hype-machine once again fails as the Cardinals pull off the week's biggest upset as 8.5-point road dogs, winning outright. The NFL Survivor Contests across the country had many participants on L.A. in Week 1. Arizona QB Jacoby Brissett could be dubbed "Survivor Slayer" as the former Patriots signal caller pulled off another upset in 2024 when New England bounced Cincinnati on the road.
Road favorites went 3-1 in Week 1 with the New York Giants being the only home underdogs to win outright. For those tracking, the Bears (59-37) and Ravens looked their part while the Bills also posted a much-respected win against a formidable Texans squad in the Lone Star State.
Rally Cry
Viking Quest
The Vikings trailed 22-10 late in the third quarter before erupting for 29 unanswered points to close the game for a 39-22 victory. Minnesota captured the victory despite QB Kyler Murray leaving the game early with a concussion.
Super Bowl Repeat
New England deserves a mention too: down 10-3 entering the fourth quarter in Seattle, the Patriots gave up 10 straight to lose late, so flip the lens and Seattle's the one that pulled off the comeback there. The game could've and should've went to overtime but Patriots QB Drake Maye tossed a late interception on an errant throw.
Division Recap
Three divisions tied for the week's best mark at 3-1: AFC North (Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers all won), NFC North (Bears, Lions, and Vikings all won), and NFC West (49ers, Cardinals, and Seahawks all won).
On the other end, the NFC South went a combined 0-4: Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay all lost their openers, the only division to get shut out entirely.
Totals Breakdown
It was practically a split with the totals market as the 'over' went 9-7. A lot of the results were clear-cut, especially in the early 1:00 p.m. ET games on Sunday.
The easiest 'over' of Week 1 came in Carolina, where the Bears and Panthers combined for 96 points against a total of 46.5 points. Every quarter in this game saw 20-plus points scored.
On the flip side, the lowest-scoring game of the week was the opener on Wednesday between New England and Seattle, which finished 23 total points against a 44-point line.
The luckiest result belongs to bettors taking the 'over' in the Saints-Lions matchup. The two teams combined for just seven points at halftime (Detroit 7-0) and looked like a lock for the under. Then it turned into a track meet: New Orleans and Detroit combined for 54 second-half-and-overtime points, including 13 in the extra period alone, to push the final to 61 and cash the over by 11.
Including the aforementioned Pats-Seahawks game, primetime aka stand-alone games saw the 'under' go 3-1 in Week 1.
