The New York Giants travel to face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2 action, and we're targeting a fade from the visiting backfield. For this article, I'm zeroing in on the rushing yards market for a Giants running back whose workload is shrinking just as the market keeps pricing him like a workhorse.
Skattebo Faces a Crowded House
A Backfield That's Getting Crowded
The biggest factor here is the major downside risk to Cam Skattebo's workload. Najee Harris is expected to make his Giants debut after being inactive in Week 1, and I expect him to take some work away from both Skattebo and Devin Singletary. That turns this into much more of a three man backfield than what we saw last week. Even without Harris in the mix, Skattebo only played 60% of the snaps in Week 1, despite the Giants playing with a very favorable game script.
Not Built for Explosive Runs
That leads into another reason I like the under. Skattebo isn't a particularly explosive runner. He's much more reliant on volume to produce rushing yards than a back who can rip off 30 or 40 yard runs, which makes a shrinking workload an even bigger problem for his yardage upside.
Game Script and Matchup Concerns
The game script is obviously a major concern as well. The Giants are 6.5 point underdogs, and if the Rams get out in front, I expect New York to lean more heavily on the passing game. That could mean fewer early down opportunities for Skattebo while Harris and Singletary still absorb some of the work.
Stacking Up the Outs
I'm not looking to overreact to what the Giants did against Dallas in Week 1. The offensive line played extremely well in that game, but I still view this as an average at best unit, and I think this is a much tougher matchup for them up front. The Rams got gashed by San Francisco in Australia last week, but I'm not willing to completely throw out my preseason evaluation of this run defense, even without Myles Garrett.
This under has the exact type of outs I'm looking for when fading a primary running back: a matchup disadvantage, poor game script, an expanded backfield rotation, and a lack of explosiveness. All of which make 51.5 to 52.5 a pretty high number for a player with this many paths to going under.
GIANTS RAMS MNF BEST BET
RB Cam Skattebo (NYG) UNDER 52.5 Rush Yds
Odds subject to change
Odds Subject to Change - Playable at 51.5
