Loading Up the Bombs for NFL Week 2
Welcome to my Longshots aka Bombs weekly piece for PropBomb, where we'll be looking to connect on some serious payouts. If you've been following since Week 1, I hope you cashed the Eli Raridon (Patriots TE) Anytime TD and First TD double at +1300 and +6500 respectively in the NFL season opener between New England and Seattle, or maybe a few days later with the Bills' DJ Moore at +280 or the Jets' Kenyon Sadiq at +950.
While the win percentages for these players aren't going to be high, the ROI is solid, and these plays can be used with your other wagers, likely SGPs or whatever you fancy.
Week 2 is loaded with the same kind of value if you know where to look. From a Pittsburgh backfield change that hasn't hit the betting market yet to a New Orleans receiver who quietly played 70 percent of the snaps in Week 1, these four longshots all have a real path to the end zone at prices that don't reflect their role.
Odds are subject to change, so get your bets in early. For full access or more free picks, check out the picks page and/or join the Discord.
Matchup: Pittsburgh at New England, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
WR Germie Bernard (PIT) Anytime TD
Odds subject to change
Have to move fast on this one. This info from the Steelers beat hasn't been priced into the line yet.
Per up and coming Steelers insider Nick Farabaugh, it doesn't look good for Michael Pittman Jr.'s status in New England on Sunday. That means WR Germie Bernard will likely get the most extended game action of his Steelers career.
Matchup: New Orleans at Baltimore, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
WR Devontez Walker (BAL) Anytime TD
Odds subject to change
WR Devontez Walker was in a legitimate camp battle for the Ravens' WR3 job before missing Week 1 with a groin injury, and he was a full participant in practice all week and appears fully healthy heading into this game. He also gets a much clearer path to playing time with Ja'Kobi Lane now on IR and the status of Zay Flowers up in the air.
Walker is exactly the type of player worth a longshot TD bet because of his big play ability. The Ravens have talked about him as a field stretcher, and he scored four touchdowns on just 11 career catches.
He gets a great matchup against a below average New Orleans defense in a 45.5 point total game with plenty of points to go around.
There were already beat writer suggestions that Walker could have a meaningful role if he was healthy enough to return, and now he's healthy and in a great spot for playing time upside.
Matchup: New Orleans at Baltimore, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
WR Bryce Lance (NO) Anytime TD
Odds subject to change
Chris Olave is questionable, and this isn't really a lean on whether he plays or not, but the important thing is that WR Bryce Lance already operated as the clear WR3 in Week 1. He played 62 of 90 offensive snaps and ran 45 routes on 63 dropbacks, finishing with 3 catches for 42 yards.
That kind of usage makes +800 feel like a clear misprice. Lance ran roughly 70 percent of the team's routes and is a more vertical, field stretching archetype, which gives him a much better touchdown ceiling than you typically get from a third receiver at this price. If the Saints are forced into another pass heavy game, which the spread indicates, expect him to be on the field a ton once again, with added upside if Olave misses.
Matchup: Jacksonville at Denver, Sunday 4:05 PM ET
RB Chris Rodriguez (JAX) Anytime TD
Odds subject to change
I'm taking a small shot on RB Chris Rodriguez at +350 because there have been multiple indications that he's the Jaguars' goal line and short yardage back. We didn't get much red zone rushing volume from Jacksonville in Week 1, but on the one play they did have inside the 5 yard line, Rodriguez was the back on the field.
That matters a lot at this price. If he is the guy they turn to when they get inside the 5, I don't think +350 adequately accounts for that role. He also has some standalone value outside of just goal line work, seeing six total carries in the Week 1 blowout.
The matchup is another reason to like this shot. Denver just got gashed on the ground by Kansas City, and this should be a much more neutral game script than last week's blowout over Cleveland. I'm not expecting a massive workload, but I am expecting CRod to be the guy in short yardage and goal line situations.
At +350, that feels like a great bet for his role on a team with a 21.5 point team total, in a game script that projects to be fairly neutral.
All Week 2 Anytime Touchdown Best Bets
.25U | RB Chris Rodriguez (JAX) Anytime TD, +350 FD
.15U | WR Germie Bernard (PIT) Anytime TD Scorer, +950 DK
.1U | WR Devontez Walker (BAL) Anytime TD, +700 DK
.1U | WR Bryce Lance (NO) Anytime TD, +800 FD




