Strength on Weakness, Twice Over
Dallas brings a legitimately elite offense into a Giants defense that was built to be exposed by exactly this kind of attack, and then made itself worse before kickoff. Layered under that is a Dallas defense that looks nothing like the unit that sank the Cowboys a year ago. Two mismatches, one number, and that number is short.
Match Details
Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Date: Sept. 13, 2026
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
An Offense Already Among the Best in Football
Dallas ranked 5th in EPA per play last season and was one of only four teams to finish top-10 in both rushing and passing efficiency. Quarterback Dak Prescott finished 7th in EPA per dropback behind arguably the best receiver room in football, headlined by CeeDee Lamb. That unit now walks into a Giants run defense that finished dead last in the league by a wide margin and was the worst team in football at limiting explosive runs. New York then traded away Dexter Lawrence, its best interior lineman, leaving rotational veterans to hold the middle of that already-broken run defense.
A Dallas Defense That No Longer Resembles Last Year's
The bigger swing might be on the other side of the ball. Dallas spent its first two draft picks on safety Caleb Downs and edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, traded for pass rusher Rashan Gary, and added Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant to the secondary. They also get a full season of Quinnen Williams, who was already helping stabilize the run defense after arriving midseason last year. This isn't the same defense that let last season get away from Dallas. It's been rebuilt at all three levels.
The Worst Possible Matchup for Jaxson Dart's Weaknesses
That rebuilt front is a rough draw for Jaxson Dart, whose rookie season leaned heavily on scrambling and out-of-structure plays rather than function within the offense. He had a league-worst 39% of his pressures charged to him, the 5th-highest sack rate among qualifying quarterbacks, and finished last in completion percentage on first reads. He'll also be without his top receiving options in the passing game: Malik Nabers' status for his first game back off a knee injury is still uncertain, and Wan'Dale Robinson left in the offseason for Tennessee.
A Better Roster Priced Like a Coin Flip
Two rosters, two clear mismatches, and a number that treats this like a pick'em. The line has this closer to a field goal, but the matchup says it should be wider than that already.
Dallas Cowboys -3
Odds subject to change
Odds Subject to Change
