Dogs Bite From Thursday to Monday Night
Upsets shouldn’t come as a surprise in the NFL as they happen, but the scoring margins are often eye-opening. Week 3 saw underdogs flourish, outright too, as the week started and closed with shockers.
Week 3 Observations From Our NFL Experts
Three weeks into the NFL season, the standings are starting to take shape, but some of those records don't tell the whole story. This week our experts pick out the teams they think are underrated and overrated.
VicksPicks
A few teams' records don't tell the full story through three weeks. The Broncos are 2-1, but I'm not sold. Quarterback Bo Nix has been pretty bad, and a lot has had to go right around him to get to that record.They could easily be 0-3 if their opponents could make second-half letdowns.
On the other hand, I think the Cardinals and Jets are better than their records. Both are frisky teams with enough offensive playmakers to stay competitive every week. I'd also keep an eye on the Jaguars. They look like a legitimate contender after dominating New England. QB Trevor Lawrence looks great, and the supporting cast has taken another step with the emergence of RB Bhayshul Tuten and WR Parker Washington.
Cleveland Cam
The Vikings are 3-0, but I'm not sold. They've been outgained by 244 yards, the second-worst mark ever for a 3-0 team. The coaching is great, but Kyler (Murray) has been bad, and regression is coming unless he turns it around.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, are better than their record. Their losses have been close, including one to Baltimore on a kick as time expired, and the offense is elite. If the defense becomes even middle-of-the-pack under the new DC, this is a real team.
Elsewhere, the Cardinals are showing fight, scoring 30 on the Niners (24 after halftime) a week after getting blown out in Seattle. The Patriots are in big trouble. Drake Maye has seven turnovers and was benched in a 35-6 loss, and the defending AFC champs host Buffalo next. The Raiders are 3-0 under new head coach Klint Kubiak, matching last year's win total, but they haven't played anyone good yet. And the Jaguars' offense is a force: Trevor Lawrence has seven TDs to two picks, and they're second in Adjusted Net EPA.
Shameless Plug: VicksPicks
VicksPicks went 8-0 in his core NFL Prop plays in Week 3 and is on a 16-3 (84%) run. Check out the winning streak below:
Inside the Numbers – Week 3
Favorites went 9-7 (56%) straight up, but underdogs flipped the script against the spread, going 10-6 (64%) ATS. Home teams had a big week, winning 11 of 16 outright and covering 10 times. The totals market finished at an even 8-8 stalemate.
| Category | Week 3 | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Up: Favorites-Underdogs | 9-7 | 32-16 |
| Straight Up: Home-Away | 11-5 | 28-20 |
| ATS: Favorites-Underdogs | 6-10 | 23-25 |
| ATS: Home-Away | 10-6 | 25-23 |
| Total: Over-Under | 8-8 | 23-25 |
Take the Points
Seven underdogs won outright in Week 3. Unlike last week, when all five winning dogs were visitors, five of this week's seven won at home. The biggest shock came in Washington, where the Commanders knocked off the defending champs. The Raiders and Browns each cashed as outright underdogs for the second straight week.
- Washington (+8.5, +320) defeated Seattle, 33-31
- Atlanta (+4.5, +200) defeated Green Bay, 35-14
- Las Vegas (+4.5, +175) defeated New Orleans, 35-27
- Chicago (+3.5, +170) defeated Philadelphia, 27-7
- Pittsburgh (+2.5, +145) defeated Cincinnati, 30-27
- Cleveland (+1.5, +115) defeated Carolina, 21-18
- Indianapolis (+1.5, +100) defeated Houston, 19-17
Backup QBs Rule
Three of those winning underdogs were led by backup or newly inserted quarterbacks. Michael Penix Jr. made his season debut for Atlanta on Thursday in their win over Green Bay. Then bettors watched Marcus Mariota turn back the clock for the Commanders on Sunday before Case Keenum said hold my beer in a brilliant display on Monday Night Football.
While he wasn't an underdog, Jameis Winston was Jameis again, grinding out a victory in his first start for the Giants against the Titans.
Winless Teams
Five teams are still looking for their first win, and two of them play in the AFC South.
L.A. Chargers (0-3): It's been a nightmare start in Los Angeles. The Chargers lost as home favorites to Arizona and Las Vegas by the same 26-14 score. Then they fell 24-16 in Buffalo, missing the cover by half a point as 7.5-point underdogs. That makes them 0-3 against the spread as well. The schedule doesn't get easier. Trips to Seattle and Kansas City and a home date with Denver still come before their bye week.
Houston (0-3): The Texans are doing what they always do. It's their second straight 0-3 start, and this one ended on a walk-off field goal in Indianapolis after Houston took the lead with 1:48 left. They've lost as a favorite in each of the last two weeks, and the offense has been out of sync all month, including just six points at home against Cincinnati in Week 2. They've climbed out of this hole before, but the margin for error is gone. Four of the next six are against teams with losing records, so another turnaround wouldn’t be surprising.
Tennessee (0-3): The Titans' defense remains well ahead of the offense. After covering in a 24-20 loss to Philadelphia in Week 2, they fell 12-7 to the Giants and didn't score until the fourth quarter. Next up is another road trip, this time to Baltimore. QB Cam Ward, last year’s No. 1 pick, is starting to feel the heat in his second season.
Miami (0-3): The Dolphins have lost to Las Vegas, San Francisco and Kansas City. They've scored 13 or fewer in each of the last two weeks. Sunday's 24-10 home loss to the Chiefs, in which they managed just three points after the first quarter. A road trip to Minnesota in Week 4 doesn’t sound promising.
Tampa Bay (0-3): Both of the last two losses came at home. In Week 2, Deshaun Watson outdueled Baker Mayfield in a 23-19 upset as the Bucs laid 7.5. On Sunday, Minnesota handled them 23-16 in another game where visiting fans were heard often and early. Don’t expect that to change when Green Bay and its loyal base visits Raymond James Stadium in Week 4. To make things worse, Mayfield (thumb) was injured in the Week 3 setback and is expected to miss three weeks.
Totals Breakdown
Totals went 8-8 in Week 3 and the ‘under’ sits at 25-23 through the first three weeks of the season.
The week's highest total (54.5) cashed comfortably as Baltimore held off Dallas 34-31, with 65 combined points posted in the International series game from Brazil.
The biggest miss came in Washington, where the Commanders and Seahawks combined for 64 on a total of just 40, clearing it by 24 points. Arizona-San Francisco produced the most points of the week (66), soaring over a total of 49 thanks to a 30-point fourth quarter.
On the other end, the Titans and Giants combined for 19 points as the first three quarters saw four field goals before a late touchdown was added in the fourth quarter. Despite a low total of 37.5, the result was never in doubt.
Perfect Over Records (3-0): Dallas, Detroit, Washington
Perfect Under Records (3-0): New England, L.A. Chargers
