Underdogs Impressive again in Week 4
Underdogs had another good week. Six won outright, including three on the road, and the biggest upset came from a team many had written off a week earlier. Favorites still won most games straight up, but several of their covers were close.
Week 4 Observations From Our NFL Experts
Four weeks into the NFL season, our NFL Experts look at which teams are trending up and which are raising red flags.
VicksPicks
Kansas City's offense remains one of the league's best. The addition of running back Kenneth Walker has added another dimension to the offense, and his production has made an already dangerous unit even more difficult to defend.
The Eagles have been underwhelming through four weeks. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has struggled, and the offense hasn't shown the consistency we expected coming into the season.
The Lions' defense continues to be a major concern. Their offense is good enough to keep them competitive, but the defense is putting too much pressure on them to play nearly perfect football every week.
Cleveland Cam
Four weeks in, a few early-season storylines are already taking shape around the league.
Houston sits 0-4 after a 34-30 loss to Dallas, and the offense has handed this defense a lead with under three minutes left in three separate games. This is the same group that returned most of the starters from last year's No. 1 ranked defense, and it has already given up 34+ points twice in four weeks.
Jacksonville is 3-1 and has only allowed 53 points all season. With Houston and Tennessee both 0-4, this division could be over before Halloween.
Carolina and Atlanta are tied atop the NFC South at 2-2, with the Panthers ahead on tiebreakers after knocking off Detroit 32-26 on Sunday night. In a division this soft, both look like they could outkick preseason expectations.
Kansas City is 4-0 with a +41 point differential, and Mahomes is doing it coming off a torn ACL. The WR room is banged up, but the Chiefs are reportedly very interested in a Tyreek Hill reunion, and at +1000 to win the Super Bowl, I'm buying at 0.25u.
Inside the Numbers – Week 4
Favorites went 10-6 (63%) straight up, but underdogs won against the spread again, going 9-7 (56%) ATS. Home and road teams split 8-8 straight up, and road teams covered nine times. The over went 9-6, with one push.
*Washington was the home team in Sunday’s International Game from London, England
| Category | Week 4 | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Up: Favorites-Underdogs | 10-6 | 42-22 |
| Straight Up: Home-Away | 8-8 | 36-28 |
| ATS: Favorites-Underdogs | 7-9 | 30-34 |
| ATS: Home-Away | 7-9 | 32-32 |
| Total: Over-Under | 9-6-1 | 32-31-1 |
Take the Points
Six underdogs won outright in Week 4, split evenly with three at home and three on the road. The biggest shock came in Buffalo, where the Patriots bounced back from a 35-6 loss in Week 3 at Jacksonville to beat the Bills on the road. Cleveland won outright as an underdog for the third straight week, this time with a late squeaker over divisional rival Pittsburgh.
- New England (+6.5. +275) defeated Buffalo, 29-26
- Carolina (+4.5, +175) defeated Detroit, 32-26
- Cleveland (+3.5, +145) defeated Pittsburgh, 27-24
- Jacksonville (+2.5, +120) defeated Cincinnati, 22-17
- Dallas (+2.5. +125) defeated Houston, 34-30
- N.Y. Giants (+1.5) defeated Arizona, 36-24
Three more underdogs covered without winning. Tennessee (+10.5) lost 24-18 in Baltimore, Miami (+9.5) lost 15-10 in Minnesota, and Las Vegas (+5.5) lost 30-27 to Kansas City.
Favorites Who Took Care of Business
Atlanta (-1.5) routed New Orleans 45-24, the most lopsided cover of the week at 19.5 points. The Falcons have won two straight now since QB Michael Penix took over. Both victories have come on the road; the club is averaging 40 points per game with the second-year starter under center.
Indianapolis (-4.5) beat Washington 30-13 at a neutral site, scoring 30 unanswered points after falling behind 6-0. The Colts have also won two straight after an 0-2 start and the defense is allowing 15 PPG in the wins.
Kansas City scored 20 points in the fourth quarter to beat Las Vegas, ending the Raiders' perfect start. The Raiders are now 3-1 while the Chiefs are 4-0 and headed into their bye week perfect. Despite the unbeaten start, Chiefs are still as high as 15/1 to win the Super Bowl.
Minnesota and San Francisco both moved to 4-0 last week with home wins over Miami and Denver respectively. The Vikings own the best scoring defense in the league (12.5 PPG) but the offense is far from formidable. Minnesota entered NFL history as the third team to start 4-0 while not scoring a touchdown in multiple (2) games.
Winless Teams
Bettors expecting winless teams to capture their first victory last season will have to wait another week as all five took it on the chin again.
L.A. Chargers (0-4): The Chargers missed the cover by half a point for the second straight week, losing 30-23 in Seattle as 6.5-point underdogs. That makes them 0-4 against the spread. They trailed 20-6 at halftime and never recovered. A home game in Week 5 against Denver is on deck, followed by a trip to Kansas City.
Houston (0-4): The Texans have now lost as a favorite three weeks in a row. Dallas beat them 34-30 as a 2.5-point underdog, with 28 points in the second half. Houston hosts Tennessee in Week 5, a matchup of winless AFC South teams, and early odds lean toward the Texans. Three of Houston’s four losses have come by five points or less.
Tennessee (0-4): The Titans covered as 10.5-point underdogs in Baltimore, losing 24-18. They trailed 24-7 at halftime, then shut out the Ravens in the second half and scored the last 11 points. The defense is still competitive, but the offense keeps falling behind early.
Miami (0-4): The Dolphins covered as 9.5-point underdogs but lost 15-10 in Minnesota. All 10 of their points came in the third quarter. They have now scored 13 or fewer points in three straight games. It’s hard to go winless in the NFL but the windows of winning are getting smaller as the season progresses.
Tampa Bay (0-4): Green Bay won 17-14 at Raymond James Stadium, and the Bucs missed the cover by half a point. It was Tampa's third straight home loss. Baker Mayfield (thumb) is expected to miss a couple more weeks.
Totals Breakdown
Totals went 9-6-1 in Week 4, and the over now leads 32-31-1 for the season. The under had held a 25-23 lead entering the week.
All three primetime games (TNF, SNF, MNF) watched the ‘over’ cash and the results were never in doubt.
Bettors who took ‘under 47’ in the Chiefs-Raiders game were looking great headed into the final quarter as Las Vegas held a 13-10 lead. Sure enough, both clubs combined for five touchdowns in the final 15 minutes as KC won 30-27.
The week's highest total (52.5) went under easily, as Jacksonville and Cincinnati combined for just 39 points, 13.5 below the number. Detroit and Carolina, at 52, went over with 58 combined.
The biggest miss came in New Orleans, where Atlanta and the Saints combined for 69 points on a total of 47.5. That was 21.5 points over the number and the most points of the week. Arizona-New York (60 on 43.5) and Dallas-Houston (64 on 48.5) both went over by more than 15.
On the other end, Miami and Minnesota combined for 25 points, the fewest of the week, finishing 13.5 under a 38.5 total. Pittsburgh-Cleveland had the same 38.5 total but went over by 12.5 thanks to 28 points in the second quarter. Tennessee-Baltimore landed exactly on 42 for the week's only push.
Perfect Over Records (4-0): Dallas, Detroit
