Road Teams Rule in Week 5
After two straight weeks of underdogs cashing, the books got some help from the chalk. Favorites won nine games straight up and covered eight. The bigger trend was location: road teams went 9-5-1 straight up and 11-4 against the spread. Five underdogs won outright. The biggest was Tampa Bay, which entered the week winless and left Dallas with a 24-16 victory at +400.
Week 5 Observations From Our NFL Experts
Five weeks into the NFL season, our NFL Experts look at which teams are trending up and which are raising red flags.
VicksPicks
Green Bay’s receiving duo is starting to come into its own. Matthew Golden has looked excellent and is showing why he was a first-round pick in 2025.
Minnesota’s defense looks legit, and linebacker Dallas Turner is emerging as a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate. His development could be a major factor in how far this team goes.
Quarterback Drake Maye continues to bounce back in a big way. He took care of the Raiders easily on Sunday and posted a massive stat line.
The Eagles’ season is becoming increasingly concerning. A top-10 draft pick is a real possibility, which would have been hard to imagine coming into the season.
Cleveland Cam
Houston came into Sunday 0-4 and finally looked like the team we expected, cruising to an easy win in Tennessee while adding Marvin Harrison Jr. (Arizona) via trade to a receiver room that’s been without Nico Collins (hamstring). History says a start like that is a death sentence, but I’m buying this group to make a run. Minnesota is the other team I’m watching closely. The Vikings have won on defense all year and were held under 250 yards of offense in each of their first three wins. Sunday was the first time the offense actually looked functional, and if that holds, Minnesota becomes a real problem in the NFC.
On the other side of the ledger, Philadelphia remains impossible to figure out. Even on the days the Eagles show up, they find a way to botch the clock at the end of the game, and I just can’t trust them. Seattle has its own issues at quarterback. Sam Darnold hasn’t looked like the guy who won the Super Bowl in February. He missed Week 2 with a glute injury, and even in his best game he threw two second-half interceptions that both led to Commanders touchdowns in a loss. The defense can cover a lot, but if Darnold keeps giving games away, the repeat talk is premature.
Inside the Numbers – Week 5
Favorites went 9-5-1 (69%) straight up and won against the spread for the first time in three weeks, going 8-7 (53%) ATS. Road teams went 9-5-1 straight up and covered 11 times. The over went 8-7.
*Jacksonville was the home team in Sunday’s International Game from London, England.
| Category | Week 5 | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Up: Favorites-Underdogs | 9-5-1 | 51-27-1 |
| Straight Up: Home-Away | 5-9-1 | 41-37-1 |
| ATS: Favorites-Underdogs | 8-7 | 38-41 |
| ATS: Home-Away | 4-11 | 36-43 |
| Total: Over-Under | 8-7 | 40-38-1 |
Take the Points
Five underdogs won outright in Week 5, four of them on the road. The biggest shock came in Dallas, where Tampa Bay erased a 10-7 halftime deficit with 17 third-quarter points for its first win of the season. Green Bay was the lone home underdog to win, and it wasn’t close.
- Tampa Bay (+9.5, +400) defeated Dallas, 24-16
- Baltimore (+3.5, +160) defeated Atlanta, 30-23 (OT)
- Buffalo (+3.5, +155) defeated L.A. Rams, 37-34 (OT)
- San Francisco (+2.5, +135) defeated Seattle, 32-29
- Green Bay (+1.5, +100) defeated Chicago, 31-7
Two more underdogs covered without winning. Philadelphia (+7.5) lost 19-17 to Jacksonville in London, and the N.Y. Giants (+3.5) played Washington to a 27-27 tie after scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter. For those not following, the Commanders had a chance to win it late in regulation, but terrible clock management left them settling for a tie at home.
Favorites Who Took Care of Business
New England (-3.5) followed last week’s upset in Buffalo by routing Las Vegas 45-17, the most lopsided cover by a favorite at 24.5 points. The Patriots led 21-7 at halftime and never let up. The Raiders, who started 3-0, have now lost two straight.
Detroit (-5.5) bounced back from its Sunday night loss in Carolina by pounding Arizona 45-21 on the road. The Lions fell behind 7-0, then scored 24 points in the second quarter and covered by 18.5.
Minnesota (-2.5) moved to 5-0 with a 23-13 win in New Orleans, scoring 17 second-half points. The Vikings are still allowing just 12.6 points per game, best in the league.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) beat Indianapolis 34-22, snapping the Colts’ two-game winning streak. Denver (-3.5) outscored the Chargers 13-0 in the fourth quarter to win 23-17. Meanwhile, the N.Y. Jets (-2.5) beat Cleveland 17-12, ending the Browns’ streak of three straight outright wins as an underdog.
Jacksonville beat Philadelphia 19-17 in London to move to 4-1 but failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite. The Jaguars were the designated home team and scored nine points in the fourth quarter to come back. They have now allowed just 70 points in five games. With Houston at 1-4 and Tennessee at 0-5, Jacksonville has a firm grip on the AFC South.
Winless Teams
Two of the five winless teams finally broke through in Week 5, while three remain without a victory.
Houston (1-4): The Texans got their first win in convincing fashion, beating Tennessee 26-3 as 6.5-point road favorites. A defense that had given up 34+ points twice in four weeks held the Titans to a first-quarter field goal and nothing else.
Tampa Bay (1-4): The Bucs ended their skid with the biggest upset of the week, beating Dallas 24-16 as 9.5-point underdogs. The defense held the Cowboys without a touchdown after the first quarter.
L.A. Chargers (0-5): The Chargers led 17-10 entering the fourth quarter at home against Denver, then gave up 13 unanswered points and lost 23-17. They are now a league-worst 0-4-1 against the spread, and things don’t get easier with a trip to Kansas City on deck.
Tennessee (0-5): After covering in Baltimore last week, the Titans managed just three points against Houston and were shut out over the final three quarters. The defense had kept them competitive, but the offense has now fallen completely off a cliff. The Titans head to Indianapolis on Sunday.
Miami (0-5): The Dolphins trailed Cincinnati 28-10 after three quarters, scored 14 in the fourth and lost 31-24, missing the cover by half a point as 6.5-point underdogs. The 24 points did snap a streak of three straight games with 13 or fewer, but the hole keeps getting deeper. Miami will get two weeks to prepare for its next game with its bye week arriving.
Totals Breakdown
The 'over' went 8-7 in Week 5 and sits at 40-38-1 for the season.
The biggest miss came in New England, where the Patriots and Raiders combined for 62 points on a total of 45.5, 16.5 over the number. Indianapolis-Pittsburgh (56 on 41.5) and San Francisco-Seattle (61 on 47) both went over by 14 or more. The Giants and Commanders cleared 41 by 13 without needing a single point in overtime.
The week’s highest total (55) went over easily, as Detroit and Arizona combined for 66 points, the most of the week. Baltimore-Atlanta (53 on 44.5) didn’t need overtime either, with regulation ending 23-23.
On the other end, Houston-Tennessee and Cleveland-New York tied for the fewest points of the week at 29. The Browns-Jets total of 38 was the week’s lowest and still went under by nine. Tampa Bay-Dallas (40 on 49) and Chicago-Green Bay (38 on 47) also fell nine points short. In London, Philadelphia and Jacksonville combined for 36 points, 6.5 under a 42.5 total. Denver-L.A. Chargers came closest to the number, finishing two under a 42.
Perfect Over Records (5-0): Detroit
On Bye in Week 5: Carolina, Kansas City
