Road Warriors
The underdogs may've had their way in Week 6, but favorites took it back in Week 7, going 10-4 straight up and 8-6 against the spread. The real story was the road. Visiting teams went 9-5 straight up and covered 11 of 14 games. The biggest shock came in Houston, where the N.Y. Giants beat the Texans 27-21 in overtime as 9.5-point underdogs. The unbeaten list also got shorter: San Francisco fell 29-20 in Atlanta, and Kansas City managed just three points in a 20-3 loss in Seattle. That leaves Minnesota (6-0) as the NFL's last undefeated team.
Expert Observations and Fearless Picks
Seven weeks in, the playoff race is taking shape, so we asked our NFL Experts to go on record with the two teams they expect to play in each conference championship game. They split on the rest of the field, but both are buying the Bills (+800) in the AFC and the Bears (+1600) in the NFC.
VicksPicks
AFC Championship: Bills vs. Jaguars
Josh Allen remains one of the most dangerous players in football, and his supporting cast is stronger this season. James Cook, the addition of DJ Moore and breakouts from Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid give Buffalo more ways to attack defenses and take pressure off Allen. Jacksonville is a balanced team with the quarterback play and talent on both sides of the ball to make a serious run. Emerging stars Bhayshul Tuten and Parker Washington add another dimension to an offense that could get harder to contain under head coach Liam Coen.
NFC Championship: Bears vs. Vikings
The Bears have become one of the NFC's most exciting teams, with Caleb Williams looking more comfortable every week. His ability to make plays in and out of structure gives Chicago a high ceiling as the season goes on. Minnesota has the defensive talent to compete with anyone in the conference. Led by breakout star Dallas Turner, that unit can control games and create problems for opposing quarterbacks, giving the Vikings the foundation for a deep postseason run.
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AFC Championship: Bills vs. Chiefs
Buffalo gets here because it has arguably the best quarterback in the NFL and an offense that can outscore anybody. Kansas City gets here because Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are still the best play caller and QB combo in the AFC, but this roster needs a trade deadline upgrade or two to finish the job. Whoever shores up their weaknesses first wins this one.
NFC Championship: 49ers vs. Bears
San Francisco keeps proving it can win through injuries, and at this point a healthy roster in January is a bonus, not a requirement. Chicago gets here because Ben Johnson is the best play caller in the league and Caleb Williams has the highest ceiling of any QB in the conference. It's experience against upside, and the Bears' ceiling is the scariest thing in the NFC.
Playoff Race: Who’s In, Who’s Priced In
Seven weeks in, the playoff field is starting to take shape, but the standings and the betting market don’t always agree. Some top seeds are long shots to win it all, while a few teams on the outside are priced like contenders. Here’s where every playoff team stands if the season ended today.
AFC
Kansas City (5-1) holds the top seed for now, but Buffalo (5-1) is the market’s Super Bowl favorite in the AFC at +800, just ahead of the Chiefs at +900. Cleveland (5-2) owns the 3 seed and still can’t get any respect at +20000. Pittsburgh (5-2) isn’t much better off at +9000 as the 6 seed. Jacksonville (4-2) leads the South at +1600, Denver (5-2) is +2400 and Cincinnati (4-2) has the last spot at +2100. The team on the outside the market likes most is Baltimore. The Ravens are 4-3 and ninth, but at +1900 they’re priced shorter than anyone in their own division.
| Seed | Team | Record | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City | 5-1 | +900 |
| 2 | Buffalo | 5-1 | +800 |
| 3 | Cleveland | 5-2 | +20000 |
| 4 | Jacksonville | 4-2 | +1600 |
| 5 | Denver | 5-2 | +2400 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | 5-2 | +9000 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 4-2 | +2100 |
| Out | New England | 4-3 | +2900 |
| Out | Baltimore | 4-3 | +1900 |
NFC
Minnesota is the league’s only unbeaten team at 6-0 and holds the top seed, but at +2200 the Vikings rank just fifth in the NFC. San Francisco (6-1) is the Super Bowl favorite at +650. The Giants (4-2-1) and Carolina (3-3) are in as division leaders, and both are priced at +10000 or longer. Chicago (+1600), Detroit (+2500) and Green Bay (+4700) hold the wild cards. Seattle (4-3) and the Rams (3-4) are on the outside right now, yet both sit at +1300, so the market expects at least one of them to crash the field.
| Seed | Team | Record | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota | 6-0 | +2200 |
| 2 | San Francisco | 6-1 | +650 |
| 3 | N.Y. Giants | 4-2-1 | +10000 |
| 4 | Carolina | 3-3 | +12000 |
| 5 | Chicago | 5-2 | +1600 |
| 6 | Detroit | 4-2 | +2500 |
| 7 | Green Bay | 4-3 | +4700 |
| Out | Seattle | 4-3 | +1300 |
| Out | Atlanta | 3-4 | +7600 |
| Out | L.A. Rams | 3-4 | +1300 |
Consensus Odds - Subject to Change
Inside the Numbers - Week 7
Favorites went 10-4 (71%) straight up and 8-6 (57%) ATS. Road teams went 9-5 straight up and covered 11 times. The over went 9-4-1.
| Category | Week 7 | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Up: Favorites-Underdogs | 10-4 | 68-37-1 |
| Straight Up: Home-Away | 5-9 | 52-53-1 |
| ATS: Favorites-Underdogs | 8-6 | 51-55 |
| ATS: Home-Away | 3-11 | 45-61 |
| Total: Over-Under | 9-4-1 | 55-49-2 |
On Bye in Week 7: Buffalo, Jacksonville, L.A. Chargers, Washington
Take the Points
Only four underdogs won outright in Week 7, three on the road and one at home. The New York Giants were the biggest of them, and Tampa Bay delivered the most lopsided result of the week.
- N.Y. Giants (+9.5, +370) defeated Houston, 27-21 (OT)
- Miami (+3.5, +175) defeated N.Y. Jets, 28-25
- Tampa Bay (+2.5, +140) defeated Carolina, 43-13
- Atlanta (+2.5, +125) defeated San Francisco, 29-20
The Giants and Texans were tied 14-14 at halftime and 21-21 after regulation before New York won it with a touchdown in overtime. Tampa Bay scored 26 points in the second quarter alone, led 33-6 at halftime and covered by 32.5 points, the biggest cover of the week. Miami built a 21-7 halftime lead and held on after the Jets scored 11 in the fourth quarter. Atlanta trailed 14-12 at the break, then outscored San Francisco 17-6 in the second half to hand the 49ers their first loss.
Two more underdogs covered without winning. Indianapolis (+7.5) led 10-6 at halftime before falling 16-10 in Minnesota, and Green Bay (+4.5) lost 20-17 in Detroit.
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Lay the Points
Eight favorites covered, and six of them did it on the road. The best of the bunch came in Baltimore, where Cincinnati (-2.5) trailed 13-0 at halftime, then scored 35 unanswered points in the second half for a 35-13 win. Dallas (-4.5) put up 38 in Philadelphia, Denver (-4.5) beat Arizona 30-16, and the L.A. Rams (-3.5) led 28-6 at halftime on the way to a 35-21 win in Las Vegas, a week after losing four key players to injury. Seattle (-3.5) and Chicago (-2.5) were the only home favorites to cover.
Totals Breakdown
The over went 9-4-1 in Week 7 and is now 55-49-2 for the season.
The biggest miss came in Philadelphia, where Dallas and the Eagles combined for 59 points on a total of 44, 15 over the number and the most points of the week. Cleveland-Tennessee had the week's lowest total at 36.5 and still went over by 14.5 with 51 points. Miami-N.Y. Jets (53 on 39.5) went over by 13.5, and Tampa Bay-Carolina (56 on 44.5) cleared the number by 11.5.
Kansas City-Seattle produced the fewest points of the week at 23, finishing 20 under a 43 total for the biggest under of the week. Green Bay-Detroit had the week's highest total at 55 and finished with just 37 points, 18 under. Pittsburgh-New Orleans and Indianapolis-Minnesota both finished at 26 points on totals of 43, each 17 short. San Francisco-Atlanta landed right on 49 for the week's only push.
Perfect Over Record Snapped: Detroit (5-1)
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