This is a complete overprice by the market for what I think New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson's role will be in 2026, and the number has already started to move.
Why Stevenson, Not Henderson, Runs This Backfield
Training camp reports out of New England have been telling on what the role for Henderson will be this season. Patriots beat writers have reported that the first touch of every period has consistently gone to Rhamondre Stevenson, with multiple beats describing Stevenson as undoubtedly the team's RB1, while Henderson has been labeled a "change of pace" back and has been criticized for needing to improve in pass protection, potentially limiting his ability to stay on the field.
There's also the Super Bowl usage to consider. Henderson barely played, which is another indication that the Patriots may not view him as someone they want or trust on the field in high leverage situations.
The Tape Doesn't Back Up the Box Score
My offseason film review of Henderson also left me unimpressed. He finished his rookie season with 911 rushing yards on 180 carries, but a significant portion of that volume production came both with Stevenson injured and from somewhat fluky explosive plays, with four runs of over 50 yards last season, second in the league only to Detroit Lions superstar Jahmyr Gibbs. On the surface, you could interpret that as a positive: a young, highly drafted running back with the explosiveness to consistently create big plays. But watching these runs back, it was eye-opening how much of that production was aided by broken plays that left him alone in space, and how difficult that is to replicate. The big-play ability is real, but I'm not convinced the 911-yard season accurately reflects the player he is or the efficiency we should expect going forward.
More concerning on his tape was his vision, which I thought was a major weakness both as a prospect and in his first year in the NFL.
The schedule also isn't particularly appealing. New England has a first-place schedule this year after having the statistically easiest schedule in 25 years last season.
The biggest risk to this bet is obviously Stevenson missing time again. If Stevenson were to get injured, Henderson's workload would increase dramatically and make 700.5 a much more obtainable number, which is what keeps this from being more than a half unit wager. Henderson has also been dealing with an undisclosed injury in training camp. It sounds like nothing serious, but any missed time would only help this bet and keep him on fade alert.
For additional context, Henderson's Week 1 rushing yard prop is already sitting at just 32.5 yards, a sharper indication of how modest his expected rushing workload is in the short term. With Henderson at 700.5 and Stevenson at 600.5, the market is clearly projecting Henderson much closer to a lead back role than everything coming out of Patriots camp suggests. As long as Stevenson stays healthy for a large portion of the season, and Henderson doesn't continue to run at the efficiency his rookie tape would suggest, there's a great chance he falls short of this number.
The Best Bet
Henderson was terrific as a rookie out of Ohio State, but I'm fading him this year and expecting a bit of a sophomore slump as Stevenson's role in this backfield becomes even clearer. I've got more free NFL Futures bets like this one dropping in the PropBomb Discord all season.
TreVeyon Henderson UNDER 700.5 Rushing Yards
