Seahawks vs. Patriots
We’re set up for a fascinating Super Bowl LX here as the Seahawks and Patriots take center stage. While this is a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX, it’s the unlikeliest NFL championship matchup of all time based on preseason odds. The Seahawks have been the most complete team in the league this season, finding success in all three phases, while the Patriots have exceeded all expectations in Drake Maye’s second season in the league. Let’s dive into the advanced metrics, personnel projections, and schematic matchups to see where the edges lie in the big game.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from Weeks 1-17; DVOA reflects full-season opponent-adjusted performance
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Run Game
The loss of Zach Charbonnet to a season-ending injury saw the Seahawks shift their strategy in the NFC Championship as they went with a 42.3% early-down rush play rate - this was a notable drop from their 50.4% rate during the regular season (8th-highest). Seattle posted just a 26% early-down rushing success rate in the game, which would have ranked dead last during the regular season, making the shift in strategy unsurprising. That inefficiency matters because it pushes the Seahawks into third-and-long situations, where the Patriots have been far more aggressive with pressure packages (more on that later).
Kenneth Walker will be tasked with handling a heavy workload again in this game. He’s a constant big-play threat, ranking 3rd among 49 qualified running backs this season in explosive rush rate (7.7%). However, that patience behind the line of scrimmage has come at the expense of down-to-down consistency. Walker has set an NFL record with an average of 3.19 seconds to cross the line of scrimmage, resulting in a 46.3% success rate (41st).
Walker and the Seahawks will have their work cut out for them against the Patriots’ run defense. New England has allowed a paltry 0.57 yards before contact per attempt and a 1.5% explosive rush rate in the playoffs, while posting a 55.9% stuff rate - those marks would have all been the best in the NFL by far during the regular season. Robert Spillane’s injury is worth monitoring after he left the AFC Championship, but he’s expected to play, and when he and Milton Williams are on the field, the Patriots have boasted an elite run defense.
The Seahawks have deployed Walker on inside zone concepts on 42.1% of his rushing attempts during the playoffs, and he’s averaging 5.31 YPC on those after ranking 3rd out of 46 qualified RBs with 5.40 YPC on inside zone runs during the regular season. The Patriots were vulnerable against those runs during the regular season (4.41 YPC allowed, 7th-highest), but they have allowed just 3.0 YPC in the playoffs, albeit on a limited sample.
If the Patriots’ postseason performance against the run, especially against inside zone, holds up, Walker’s efficiency largely depends on big plays rather than consistent success. With no proven secondary option behind Walker, Seattle’s run game has little pressure release if efficiency drops early.
Pass Game
The Patriots have increased their pressure in the second half of the season, ranking second in blitz rate (40.1%) since Week 15. If the Patriots blitz, they better get home because when Sam Darnold sees pressure but isn’t pressured, Seattle’s passing game becomes more explosive. Darnold ranks second in YPA (10.54) and deep throw rate (19.1%) out of 39 qualified QBs when blitzed but not pressured. He’s willing to push the ball downfield when chances arise, even into tight windows.
Those opportunities should occur more often with the Patriots using man coverage at a 34.6% rate during the playoffs - which would have ranked 5th during the regular season. Darnold burned man coverage during the regular season, ranking 1st in completion rate (66.4%) and 2nd in YPA (9.0).
Jaxson Smith-Njigba torched man coverage, in particular - he led the NFL with 4.16 YPRR against man coverage. He’ll likely see a lot of Christian Gonzalez here, who has allowed a 44.6% catch rate overall this season, ranking 2nd among qualified cornerbacks. That sets up one of the most pivotal matchups in the game, as Gonzalez’s ability to contest at the catch point will determine how aggressively New England can stay in man coverage.
Rashid Shaheed should also be the recipient of some downfield looks. He’s run a vertical route on over half of his routes since being traded to the Seahawks, and while he’s seeing just a 13.8% target share, he’s capable of taking the top off the defense at any moment.
If the Patriots are blitzing heavily, it may push Darnold out of the pocket, where he’s thrived this season as he scrambles while looking to throw. He ranks 3rd among qualified QBs with 8.29 YPA on the move, but the Patriots have held up well in these situations, allowing just 4.63 YPA (5th-fewest) to QBs on the move. If those outlets are taken away, Darnold is more likely to drift into late, pressured throws.
The Seahawks must avoid turnovers, especially if the Patriots stay aggressive on defense. Darnold’s 5.2% turnover-worthy play rate under pressure ranked 7th-highest in the regular season. He’s done an excellent job of taking care of the football with just a 1.6% turnover-worthy play rate overall, but he’ll have to be comfortable hanging in the pocket and taking what the defense gives him, because this offense can get into trouble when he starts forcing throws into tight windows.
The Patriots' path to success here depends on their defense slowing the Seahawks on early downs and forcing Darnold into third-and-long situations, where they can be aggressive with blitzes. The Seahawks rank just 23rd in EPA per play on third-and-long this season, and Darnold’s performance in those high-pressure situations will ultimately decide whether the Seahawks’ offense can sustain drives in this game.
When the Patriots Have the Ball
Run Game
The Patriots ranked 6th in neutral-script early-down pass play rate during the regular season (56%), but they have skewed much more run-heavy in the playoffs with a 49% early-down rush play rate. However, that approach hasn’t been particularly effective - their 27% early-down rushing success rate in the playoffs would have ranked dead last in the regular season, and now they’re facing a Seattle defense that ranked 3rd in early-down rushing success rate allowed and 1st in early-down EPA/rush allowed in the regular season.
New England has leaned heavily on man/duo run concepts, running them at a 36% rate in the postseason, but that plays directly into Seattle’s strengths. The Seahawks have allowed just 3.29 YPC on those runs this season (4th-lowest). This approach plays into Rhamondre Stevenson’s skill set, but the Patriots could struggle to generate opportunities out of these plays here against the Seahawks’ elite run defense.
Seattle’s run defense success has been even more impressive given its heavy use of nickel and dime personnel on nearly 90% of its run defense snaps, by far the most in the league. The Patriots may counter by leaning on heavier personnel, but the Seahawks maintained their approach with lighter personnel despite the Rams using 13 personnel on almost half of their run plays in the NFC Championship. Standout rookie safety Nick Emmanwori’s dominance in run defense and flexibility in coverage has been the lynchpin of this stalwart unit, and while he picked up an ankle injury in practice this week, it doesn’t sound like it’s serious enough to keep him out here.
New England may need to get creative on early downs to find success on the ground, and after he played just 6% of snaps in the AFC Championship, rookie TreVeyon Henderson may have more of a role to play here as the Patriots mix in different run concepts against this outstanding run defense. Henderson’s speed and open-field ability could give the Patriots a way to stress the Seahawks horizontally, rather than repeatedly challenging a front that has been dominant against interior concepts.
If the Patriots continue to lean on the run without generating early-down success, it risks putting Drake Maye into predictable passing situations against a defense built to disguise coverages and pressure without blitzing.
Pass Game
If the Patriots cannot find early-down rushing success, it could push Drake Maye into frequent late-down-and-distance situations against the Seahawks’ elite pass-rush unit. Maye has been under siege in the playoffs, posting a 45.5% pressure-to-sack rate in the postseason that would have ranked by far the highest in the regular season, and Seattle is capable of winning quickly without blitzing - finishing 7th in pass-rush win rate, which measures wins within 2.5 seconds. That’s especially concerning given left tackle Will Campbell’s struggles, as 36.7% of the Patriots’ allowed pressures this postseason have come off his side, and he’s allowed over a 10% pressure rate.
The danger is that pressure doesn’t just stall the offense - it introduces volatility. Maye led the NFL with 8.45 YPA under pressure in the regular season, and that’s jumped to 11.75 YPA vs pressure in the playoffs with a 25% deep throw rate, reflecting his willingness to stand in and hunt explosives. That aggression comes with risk, though - he has already fumbled six times in the postseason and leads the NFL with 14 fumbles this season, underscoring how quickly pressure-driven plays can swing from explosive to catastrophic.
One way Maye can mitigate the Seahawks’ pressure is with his legs - he led the NFL with 69 scrambles this season, generating 546 yards. That mobility gives the Patriots an escape hatch when their protection breaks down, and Maye is also a capable thrower on the move. The Seahawks have allowed 7.08 YPA to quarterbacks on the move this season (2nd-most), creating opportunities for the Patriots to get Maye moving on bootlegs and designed rollouts to counter Seattle’s pass rush. The Seahawks have also faced the 9th-highest scramble rate and forced the lowest average time to scramble this season. While Maye’s mobility is a potential counter, it will be tough for the Patriots to rely on it through the entire game.
If Maye is hunting the deep ball against the Seahawks, he’ll also be playing into this defense’s biggest strength. Seattle has allowed the third-fewest YPA on 20+ yard throws and ranks second in pass defense DVOA on deep balls, while also limiting opponents to the fewest YPA (8.50) and second-lowest CPOE (-4.8%) on throws of 10+ yards. Maye’s deep ball hasn’t been nearly as dialed in during the playoffs - he ranked 4th in YPA (16.5) and 3rd in CPOE (+17.7%) on deep throws during the regular season, but he’s completed just 4-of-15 passes of 20+ yards and 10-of-26 throws of 10+ yards in the postseason, with a -9.4% CPOE. Seattle has also allowed the lowest YPRR to perimeter receivers, reducing the likelihood that Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins can flip the game on the outside.
The Seahawks have run zone coverage on 76% of their defensive plays, but they don’t lean into one particular coverage type - Mike Macdonald is a master defensive schemer, and he’s had two weeks to prepare for Maye here, so he’ll have some unique coverage looks ready. Maye will need to take what the defense gives him, and for Seattle, that’s often targets to the backfield - they have forced 20.8% of opposing targets to the backfield, the most in the league.
Game Script Framing
How Seattle Will Win: Sam Darnold must take advantage of the downfield opportunities that will present themselves against a man-heavy, blitzing Patriots defense, because early-down rushing consistency will likely be hard to come by. The Seahawks must also continue to succeed in early-down defensive dominance, forcing the Patriots into predictable passing situations where their pass rush and coverage disguise can take over. If Seattle can limit explosive throws from Maye and keep him playing from behind the sticks, they can turn pressure into sacks, turnovers, and stalled drives while keeping the game on its terms.
How New England Will Win: The Patriots must find a way to establish early-down efficiency and lean into Maye’s ability to create outside structure without putting the ball in harm’s way. If Maye can extend drives, hit a handful of explosive plays, and avoid game-altering mistakes, the Patriots can keep the game close into the fourth quarter, where their defense can swing the game with its aggressive approach against Darnold.
Overall Game Script: In a game where every micro edge matters, Seattle’s advantage in hidden areas looms large - the Seahawks rank 2nd in special teams DVOA, while the Patriots rank 20th, and their kicking issues resurfaced with Andy Borregales missing two field goals in the AFC Championship. Those margins carry weight in a matchup this tight.
Drake Maye’s remarkable sophomore season comes to a head here on the biggest stage, and if he can be the best player on the field on Sunday, the Patriots have a path to an upset. However, the Seahawks’ path to victory is much less fragile, which is why they enter this game as the deserved favorites.
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Props This Game Points Towards
Kenneth Walker volatility over consistency
Sam Darnold explosive passing opportunities with Jaxon Smith-Njigba a likely beneficiary in man coverage
Drake Maye pressure-driven volatility
Patriots’ backfield involvement in the passing game
