Rams at Bears
The Bears have been one of the best breakthrough stories in the NFL this season, culminating in their first playoff victory over their rival Packers since 1941. This triumphant run for Chicago takes center stage here with a trip to the NFC Championship game on the line against MVP candidate Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Let’s analyze the matchups and see where the advantages may lie in what promises to be an electric playoff showdown.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from Weeks 1-17; DVOA reflects full-season opponent-adjusted performance
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When the Rams Have the Ball
Run Game
The Rams have boasted the best run game in the NFL this season, ranking first in early-down rushing success rate through Week 17 (50.7%). Los Angeles has relied on 13 personnel (three tight ends) this season with its versatile group of tight ends, which has resulted in Kyren Williams and Blake Corum ranking first and second in rushing success rate among 49 qualified running backs.
This should be a favorable matchup for the Rams’ running game, as the Bears allowed 2.62 yards before contact per attempt during the regular season (most in the league) with a 39.3% stuff rate (4th-lowest). Los Angeles led the league with 169 man/duo rushing attempts this season, and Chicago permitted a 57.4% success rate on those carries, the highest in the league.
With Kevin Dotson expected to return after missing last week’s game, the Rams’ top-ranked offensive line by adjusted line yards is back at full strength, and it’s difficult to identify a consistent point of resistance from the Bears’ defense.
Pass Game
The Rams should also have no problem getting their pass game going here against the Bears, who ranked 24th in early-down EPA/DB allowed in the regular season. Chicago got into a deep hole against Green Bay last week as Jordan Love torched its defense, particularly in the play-action passing game, where he completed 7 of 11 passes for 130 yards (11.8 YPA). That was on-brand for the Bears, who allowed 8.58 YPA on play-action throws this year (8th-most).
Matthew Stafford crushed on play-action throws this year, ranking second in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). Puka Nacua’s 4.20 YPPR on play-action led the Rams and ranked 4th out of 69 qualified receivers. Colby Parkinson was also highly efficient on play-action throws, posting 2.76 YPRR, which ranks 12th out of 48 qualified TEs.
The Bears have also allowed 58.5 yards per game (4th-most) on 20+ yard throws, which could lead to explosive plays to Davante Adams, who leads the Rams with a 34.5% target share on deep throws. Nacua has been excellent on deep balls this year, ranking 4th out of 49 qualified WRs with a 57.9% catch rate on 20+ yard throws.
Chicago ranks 31st in pass-rush win rate, and Stafford ranks 5th in ANY/A when kept clean this season, with 35 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Long down-and-distance situations seem unlikely in this game for the Rams’ offense, with its run game expected to thrive, and Stafford shouldn’t have problems carving up this secondary from clean pockets.
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When the Bears Have the Ball
Run Game
The Bears ranked second in early-down rushing success rate during the regular season, just behind the Rams, and their offensive line ranked 5th in run-block win rate. The Rams, however, have been outstanding against the run—they rank 5th in early-down rushing success rate allowed and first in run-stop win rate. Chicago’s offense has thrived on zone scheme runs, posting a 53.1% success rate (5th-highest), but the Rams have been elite against those runs, permitting just a 43.2% success rate (4th-lowest).
The Rams got safety Quentin Lake back in the lineup last week, which is huge for their run defense’s viability. With Lake in the lineup from Weeks 1-11, the Rams allowed the 2nd-lowest explosive rush rate (1.5%) ranked 3rd in early-down EPA/rush allowed. From Weeks 11-17 without Lake, they were much more leaky, ranking in the middle of the pack in both metrics.
If Chicago can find any explosiveness on the ground, it will likely come on outside zone runs, where Los Angeles has allowed a 4.8% explosive rush rate, ranking 14th. D’Andre Swift leads the way here with a 56% success rate (7th-highest out of 50 qualified RBs) and 4.96 YPC (13th) on outside zone runs.
The Rams should have more success limiting Kyle Monangai, as over half of his runs have gone to the A and B gaps, where he’ll be running into Poona Ford, who ranks 5th among qualified DTs with an 11.3% run-stop rate this season.
Pass Game
The Rams have one of the top pressure units in the league this year, ranking 4th in pressure rate (26.3%) despite blitzing at the 2nd-lowest rate (17.7%). With Ozzie Trapilo rupturing his patellar tendon last week, the Bears will need to rely on Theo Benedet or Braxton Jones at left tackle. Benedet has a 7.8% pressure rate this year (8th-highest among 71 qualified offensive tackles), while Jones hasn’t played since Week 4 and allowed an 11% pressure rate when he was on the field this season, although on limited snaps.
The Bears will be up against Jared Verse and Byron Young, who both rank in the top 12 in pass-rush win rate. Right tackle Darnell Wright will be up to the task, as he has allowed just a 3% pressure rate (3rd-lowest), but the left tackle spot is a major concern. Caleb Williams drops from 7.72 YPA from a clean pocket to 5.25 YPA under pressure, which ranks 27th out of 33 qualified QBs.
When Chicago can find time for Williams in the pocket, he’ll be in a great position to exploit a Rams secondary that has recently struggled to hide clear talent gaps. In the Wild Card round, Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker combined for 215 yards on 14 catches, including three receptions of 20+ yards downfield. Chris Shula has done an excellent job this season, but the cornerback duo of Emmanuel Forbes and Cobie Durant has not been playing well enough lately.
The Rams play zone coverage at a 76.8% rate (6th-highest), and Luther Burden is in position to take advantage, as the rookie leads the Bears with 0.26 TPRR and 2.92 YPRR against zone defense this year. Colston Loveland has also been excellent against zone defense, ranking second with 0.23 TPRR and 2.23 YPRR, and he’s coming off a wildly impressive playoff debut with 8 catches for 137 yards.
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Game Script Framing
How Los Angeles Will Win: Whether running or passing the ball, the Rams have easy paths to consistent offensive success in this matchup. Their secondary has holes that can be exploited, but Jared Verse and Byron Young can generate consistent pressure against Caleb Williams and get enough stops to come out on top.
How Chicago Will Win: The Bears ranked first in the NFL in turnover margin during the regular season, and with their defensive deficiencies in this matchup, they will need to find a way to generate a couple of takeaways here. If Caleb Williams can hit some explosives in the passing game and the Bears win the turnover battle, an upset is possible.
Overall Game Script: The Bears have had an incredible breakthrough season, but their defense has been barely skating by most weeks against top opponents, and Sean McVay will be able to press all the right buttons to take advantage. The arrow is firmly pointing up in Chicago, but Los Angeles likely emerges victorious and books a trip to the NFC Championship.
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Props This Game Points Towards
Kyren Williams and Blake Corum show rushing consistency.
Puka Nacua and Davante Adams deliver explosive plays off play-action.
D’Andre Swift exhibits inconsistent down-to-down performance but has potential for big plays on outside zone.
Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland display explosive potential against the Rams’ secondary.