Rams at Seahawks
These NFC West heavyweights take the field for a rubber match after splitting the season series, but this time, a trip to the Super Bowl hangs in the balance. Let’s dive into the advanced metrics, using scheme and personnel usage to identify where the edges lie in what looks on paper to be a battle of the two best teams in the NFL.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from Weeks 1-17; DVOA reflects full-season opponent-adjusted performance
When the Rams Have the Ball
Run Game
The Rams had the best run game in the NFL this season, with a rushing success rate of 50.4%, but the Seahawks held them to below 40% in both regular-season matchups. The Rams averaged only 3.98 YPC across those two games, which would have ranked 28th during the regular season. Seattle boasted the best run defense in the league this season by DVOA, and they accomplished this while using nickel or dime personnel (5 or 6 DBs) on 90% of their snaps.
The Seahawks ranked 2nd in the NFL at defending the run when using nickel personnel, and while the Rams ranked 3rd in rushing success rate against nickel personnel this season, it didn’t translate into sustained success against Seattle. Rookie safety Nick Emmanwori has been optimized in Mike Macdonald’s defense as a downhill force, and Leonard Williams has been one of the most dominant defensive linemen in the league this year.
The Rams will counter the Seahawks’ nickel and dime personnel by frequently using 13 personnel. They led the league with a 43.9% rush rate out of 13 personnel. during the regular season, which increased to 68.8% against the Seahawks this season, including 76.9% in their second matchup. On limited snaps, Seattle ranked much closer to league average in defending runs out of 13 personnel, and Los Angeles could pressure them to rely more on heavier personnel they normally prefer.
It will be fascinating to see if Sean McVay has come up with any counters to run on this Seahawks run defense since those two regular-season matchups, and if the Rams can’t establish a rushing attack on early downs, it could put Matthew Stafford in some bad positions against an elite pass defense.
Pass Game
The Rams have the 4th-fewest 3-and-outs per drive this season, but they have dropped to 20th over the last month in the percentage of drives without a first down. They’ve been much more boom-or-bust lately, and Stafford will need to succeed in throwing past the sticks to keep the chains moving. The Seahawks allowed the fewest YPA on throws 10+ yards downfield (8.56), but Stafford averaged 14.71 YPA on those throws in two games against their defense - that would have led all qualified QBs during the regular season.
Puka Nacua was the primary beneficiary of those downfield passes, especially in their most recent matchup, where he posted 12 catches for 225 yards with 4 catches of 25+ yards. He averaged 10.7 air yards per target in that Week 16 matchup. The Seahawks allowed 76.4 receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers this year (fewest) and ranked #1 in DVOA against WR1s, but Nacua was the exception, succeeding in both games against them.
The Seahawks can consistently apply pressure on Stafford, ranking 6th in pressure rate (26.1%) and 7th in pass-rush win rate despite blitzing at the 7th-lowest rate (19.3%). Right tackle Warren McClendon was a breakout player for the Rams in the regular season, stepping in for injured Rob Havenstein and allowing just a 3.7% pressure rate (10th out of 71 qualified OTs). However, his pressure rate has increased to 7.4% in the playoffs so far, raising doubts about his recent form against tougher competition.
Stafford is completing just 49.6% of his passes when pressured with no blitz (24th) with a -5.7% CPOE (30th). However, his 6.38 adjusted net yards per attempt ranks 1st in those dropbacks. He’s also done a good job of avoiding sacks (8.6% sack rate ranks 3rd-lowest). Stafford can hit explosives against this defense when pressured, but he might struggle with consistency in this matchup.
The Seahawks' funnel targets are running backs (37.8 yards per game allowed, 6th-most) and tight ends (64.2 yards per game allowed, 5th-most), while they shut down wide receivers. The Rams may need to rely on their RBs and deep tight ends in the passing game, while Davante Adams might face efficiency challenges given Seattle’s strong perimeter coverage.
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Run Game
The Seahawks lost Zach Charbonnet to a torn ACL last week, putting the onus on Kenneth Walker to handle the bulk of the backfield work in this game. Walker stepped up last week against a beat-up 49ers defense, posting 19 carries for 116 yards and three touchdowns, but this is a much tougher matchup as the Rams rank 5th in run defense DVOA, though that unit has shown some cracks recently.
Walker has been a boom-or-bust running back this season—his 42.9% rushing success rate ranks 44th out of 48 qualified running backs, but his 7.8% explosive rush rate ranks 3rd, and his 0.26 missed tackles forced per attempt ranks 1st. The Rams have held opponents to a 2.9% explosive rush rate this season (4th-lowest), but they’ve slipped lately, allowing a 5.5% explosive rush rate since Week 12 (6th-highest over that span).
The Seahawks have utilized Walker on zone concepts on over half of his runs this season, and he ranks just 45th out of 48 qualified RBs in success rate on those runs but 2nd in explosive rush rate (9.6%). The Rams have allowed an 8.8% explosive rush rate on outside zone runs since Week 12 (2nd-highest), so look out for some explosive Walker runs to the perimeter here.
Outside of Walker, former UDFA George Holani, who has just 22 rushing attempts this season, is the next man up, while converted wide receiver Velus Jones Jr. is the only other running back on the roster, underscoring how limited Seattle’s margin for error is in the backfield. Rashid Shaheed could also make an impact - he had a 31-yard touchdown run on an end-around against the Rams in Week 16.
Pass Game
Since Seattle’s run game is limited without Charbonnet, Sam Darnold takes center stage against a Rams pass defense that has slipped recently - they rank 14th in EPA/pass allowed since Week 12. Defensive coordinator Chris Shula has done a tremendous job all year, but the lack of elite talent on this side of the ball is starting to show for the Rams in recent weeks.
The Rams rely heavily on their pass rush to get home, ranking 4th in pressure rate (26.3%) despite blitzing at the 2nd-lowest rate (17.7%). Darnold was pressured on 36% of dropbacks in two games against the Rams, and his 5% turnover-worthy play rate when pressured is the 11th-highest in the league, so the Rams hope their pressure can force some mistakes.
The Rams boast edge rushers Jared Verse and Byron Young, who both ranked in the top 12 in pressure rate among qualified edge defenders during the regular season. Left tackle Charles Cross returned last week after missing the last few games of the season, and he’ll need to be at his best here. The Rams will also likely target struggling right guard Anthony Bradford with Kobie Turner, who ranks 5th among defensive tackles with a 14% pass-rush win rate.
Losing Charbonnet is also a big deal for the Seahawks in pass protection, as Walker is not nearly as adept in that part of the game. It’s not a perfect metric by any means, but Walker ranks just 51st out of 60 qualified RBs in PFF’s pass-blocking metrics. That becomes even more problematic on late downs, where the Seahawks rank just 25th in EPA/pass since Week 10. They ranked just 29th in conversion rate in third-and-long situations (19.8%) in the regular season.
One area where the Seahawks might find success in the passing game is with condensed formations. Seattle used condensed formations on 12.3% of their passing plays during the regular season, ranking third most, and they were also in the top 10 in EPA per pass on those plays. The Rams rank in the bottom four in EPA per pass allowed on throws from condensed formations. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the team with a 36.8% target share on those looks, but AJ. Barner . was also heavily involved.
Game Script Framing
How Los Angeles Will Win: The Rams will need to find creative ways to establish their run game early against the Seahawks’ top-ranked run defense, as it will be difficult to rely on Matthew Stafford to consistently bail them out of long down-and-distance situations against Seattle’s pass rush. Explosive plays to Puka Nacua through the air could provide enough offensive spark to overcome any issues with consistency.
How Seattle Will Win: Avoiding late down-and-distance spots will be critical for the Seahawks, as Klint Kubiak must press the right buttons to keep Sam Darnold out of bad spots against the Rams’ pass rush. The Rams’ defense has been vulnerable to explosive plays on the ground, and its struggling secondary should create enough opportunities for the Seahawks’ big-play offense.
Overall Game Script: This is a heavyweight fight between two NFC West superpowers who split their regular-season series. The Seahawks’ defense has been in the best form of any unit in this game, but the Rams have enough upside on both sides of the ball to take advantage if they can win the turnover battle on the road. In a game where every little edge will matter, it’s also worth noting that the Seahawks rank 2nd in special teams DVOA and the Rams rank 26th.
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Props This Game Points Towards
Matthew Stafford volatility-driven passing production (explosives over stability)
Puka Nacua as the primary driver of offensive upside for the Rams
Kenneth Walker explosive rush ability rather than consistent efficiency
Sam Darnold turnover risk under pressure in long-yardage situations
Jaxon Smith-Njigba and A.J. Barner involvement from condensed formations
