Fade Alert - Regression coming for Panthers
This Carolina Panthers team far exceeded expectations last season, winning the NFC South and finishing with eight wins, but it was a record driven by a combination of one-score variance, a favorable schedule, and an offense that still has major limitations. Strip away some of that variance and the underlying performance looked much more like a 5-6 win team. Now they have to navigate a significantly more difficult schedule while already dealing with several major injuries.
The Offensive Line Is Already Compromised
The biggest issue starts up front. Carolina's best unit from last season is already compromised, with both starting tackles expected to miss at least the beginning of the season. Ikem Ekwonu is on reserve/PUP with a ruptured patellar tendon, while Taylor Moton is on reserve/NFI. That leaves Rasheed Walker at left tackle, an average starter, and rookie Monroe Freeling, who I view as a raw prospect, opposite him. Luke Fortner is also expected to replace Cade Mays at center, a considerable downgrade, while swing tackle Brady Christensen is already on IR. That's three new starters on an offensive line that was the biggest strength of this team a year ago.
Bryce Young Remains the Question Mark
That's particularly concerning because quarterback Bryce Young remains the biggest question mark on the roster. I thought he was better last season, and Carolina has done a much better job building an environment around him, but I still view him as a below-average NFL quarterback. Young averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt last season, 29th in the league, and ranked 28th of 33 qualified starters in EPA per play. Carolina also played a relatively favorable slate of pass defenses.
The Skill-Position Group Isn't Strong Enough to Compensate
Tetairoa McMillan is a legitimate building block and I expect him to continue ascending as a true No. 1 receiver. He accounted for 30.7% of Carolina's receiving yards last season and should remain the focal point of the passing attack. Jalen Coker has also quietly developed into a very useful player, but the room took a major hit when Chris Brazzell suffered a season-ending LCL injury. Brazzell was one of my favorite receiver prospects in the draft and would have provided something this offense desperately needs: legitimate explosive-play ability. His absence leaves Xavier Legette, John Metchie and Coker to fill out the room behind McMillan. Legette still struggles to separate and consistently win as a route runner, while Metchie and David Moore are more depth pieces.
That creates a difficult formula for wins: questionable quarterback play, a compromised offensive line, limited receiving depth, and an offense that isn't likely to generate huge passing volume.
The Defense Offers More Optimism, But Depth Is Thin
The defense is where I'm considerably more optimistic. Ejiro Evero has done a good job maximizing imperfect personnel, and the Panthers have finally started giving him pieces that fit his system. Jaelan Phillips is a legitimate No. 1 edge rusher when healthy, while Derrick Brown remains one of the better interior defenders in football. This should be a significantly better defensive front than what Carolina has had in recent years.
The problem is the depth opposite Phillips. Nic Scourton is out for the season with an ACL injury, while Tershawn Wharton is on reserve/PUP. Patrick Jones is more of a depth player than someone I want heavily featured, while Princely Umanmielen has intriguing pass-rush ability but isn't yet someone I'd trust as a complete three-down player.
The Best Bet
Between the rebuilt offensive line, an unresolved quarterback situation, a thin receiver room, and a tougher schedule, the pieces that got Carolina to eight wins last year don't hold up under scrutiny. I'm fading Carolina and taking Under 7.5 wins as this collab play PropBomb NFL contributor with ClevelandCam.
Be sure to get more NFL Futures Play for free by joining the PropBomb Discord.
Carolina Panthers - Under 7.5 Wins
