College Football Week 9 Best Bet:
Army Breaks Script

College Football Best Bets: Not Your Usual Army Game

Army runs the ball 82.7% of the time, second-most in the country, and plays at the slowest pace in FBS (#138). Normally that makes the under an automatic look. This week is different. Army’s defense has been one of the worst in the country, Memphis has the offense to take advantage, and Army’s own attack is much better than its reputation. Here’s the breakdown.

Match Details

Matchup: Army vs Memphis

Week: 9

Location: Memphis, Tennessee

Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Army’s Defense Can’t Get Off the Field

The Black Knights rank 128th in Adjusted Success Rate allowed and 132nd in Adjusted EPA/Rush allowed. They give up explosive plays at the 129th-ranked rate and get almost no push up front, ranking 136th in front-seven havoc and 129th in sack rate. They are 124th on early downs and 124th on third and fourth down, so drives keep going. Tulsa just put 35 points on them.

Memphis Has the Weapons to Cash In

Memphis is built to exploit those weaknesses. The Tigers are #7 in line yards per carry, #10 on early downs and #17 in EPA/Rush. Quarterback Marcus Stokes threw for 320 yards and three touchdowns against East Carolina and added two more scores on the ground. Memphis also plays fast (#13 in pace), so it will get its possessions even against Army’s slow style.

This Army Offense Can Score

This isn’t the old three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust Army. The Black Knights are #3 in Adjusted EPA/Rush, #16 in Adjusted Success Rate and #7 on third and fourth down, and they allow almost no havoc (#4). Memphis is vulnerable once runners reach the second level, ranking 128th in open-field yards per carry. Quarterback Cale Hellums ran for 121 yards and three touchdowns at Tulsa.

The Recent Scores Back It Up

Army’s last game totaled 73 points. Memphis’ last game went to overtime and ended 41-34. Both offenses are in rhythm, and neither defense has shown it can slow anyone down.

Week 9 College Football Best Bet

Betting the over in an Army game doesn’t happen often, but this is the spot. Army’s defense ranks near the bottom of the country in almost every meaningful metric, Memphis brings an efficient, fast-paced offense, and Army’s rushing attack can move the ball against a Tigers defense that gives up big plays. Give me the over.