College Football Week 5 Best Bets:
Two Totals to Ride

College Football Best Bets: Four Bad Defenses, Two Overs

Two games kick at the same minute Saturday night, and both come down to the same thing: defenses ranked near the bottom of the country that can't stop the run and can't get off the field. UTSA travels to Rice, and ULM visits South Alabama. Here's the breakdown on both.

UTSA vs Rice Best Bet

Match Details

Matchup: American Conference

Week: 5

Location: Houston, Texas

Venue: Rice Stadium

Date: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

The Owls Can't Stop the Run

I have this game closer to 61, and I think 54.5 is a number the books are going to regret by the end of the first quarter.

Start with Rice's defense, because there isn't much to start with. This is a unit ranked 134th in Adjusted Defense. It gives up explosive plays at the second-worst rate in the country (28.8%, #134), it can't stop the run (#135 in Adjusted EPA/Rush allowed), and opponents convert third downs on it more than half the time (52.9%, #123). Rice has given up 28 to Western Michigan, 38 to Fresno State, and 52 to Notre Dame. UTSA's offense isn't elite, but it does the one thing this defense can't handle: it runs the ball (#18 in Adjusted EPA/Rush) and it protects Owen McCown as well as anybody (#13 in sack rate allowed). McCown has seven touchdowns to one pick and is completing nearly 69% of his throws. UTSA just put up 59 on Colorado State. Thirty-five here is the floor, not the ceiling.

Why It's the Over, Not a UTSA Team Total

Now here's why this is an over and not a UTSA team total: UTSA's defense is bad too. Genuinely bad. It's 129th in havoc, 128th in sack rate and 111th against the run. This is a defense that doesn't make plays and doesn't get off the field. Rice's offense is nothing special (#94 Adjusted Offense), but it has scored 21 and 24 in its last two games against defenses better than this one, and it's been one of the unluckiest teams in the country, with a -10.9 luck index (130th nationally) and brutal turnover luck. That's a team due to get a few bounces, playing a defense that hands them out.

Best Bet

Two defenses that can't tackle, one offense that just scored 59, and a home team that's been getting the wrong end of every bounce. I struggle to see this one staying under 55. Over.

ULM vs South Alabama Best Bet

Match Details

Matchup: Sun Belt Conference

Week: 5

Location: Mobile, Alabama

Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium

Date: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Two of the Worst Defenses in the Country

Two disgusting defenses. I have this number at 58.

South Alabama's defense is 136th in Adjusted Defense. It is dead last against the run (#137 in EPA/Rush allowed), 136th in explosive plays allowed, and 137th on early downs. Kentucky ran for 386 yards on them last week. Ohio scored 36 on them the week before. ULM's defense is worse. It is 137th in Adjusted Defense, last in the country in success rate allowed (52.5%, #138), and it lets opponents face third-and-4.8 on average, which is also last. Mississippi State scored 62 on them. FAU scored 45.

Both Run Games Get a Soft Spot

Neither offense is good, but neither one needs to be. South Alabama ran for 248 yards against Ohio and scored 41 with Jared Hollins making his first start for an injured Bishop Davenport. ULM's Aidan Armenta went 79% for 278 yards and two touchdowns against FAU, and the run game is the one thing this team actually does well (#39 in Adjusted EPA/Rush). That run game gets a South Alabama defense that is last in the country against it.

Best Bet

South Alabama's last two games went 77 and 66. ULM's went 75 and 62. I don't see how these two defenses combine to hold this under 56. Over.

Cleveland Cam Is Back for More

Cleveland Cam is coming off a 6-2-1 NCAAF Week 4 on his core plays, good for +4.85U, and he's back for more this Saturday. All of his documented results are listed below.

NCAAF Documented Best Bets