College Football Best Bets: Two Orange Teams, Two Big Numbers
Saturday’s card has a color scheme. Tennessee goes to Fayetteville to face an Arkansas team that hasn’t won an SEC game in more than a year. Oregon State hosts a San Diego State team whose record looks better than the team underneath it. Both favorites are laying about two touchdowns, and both have the matchup edges to clear it. Here’s the breakdown on both.
Tennessee vs Arkansas Best Bet
Match Details
Matchup: SEC
Week: 6
Location: Fayetteville, Arkansas
Venue: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Time: 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Arkansas Has Forgotten How to Win
Arkansas has lost 13 straight SEC games. The Razorbacks just scored 7 points on 214 yards against Texas A&M. Before that it was 10 at Utah and 17 against Georgia. Their two wins came against North Alabama and Tulsa. This is a bad football team, and I don’t think 13.5 is enough.
The Vols Will Run It Down Their Throat
Tennessee is going to run the ball down their throat. DeSean Bishop just went for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns against Auburn, and the Vols are #5 in the country in EPA/Rush. Arkansas is 132nd against the run. Arkansas also lets teams convert 57.5% of their third and fourth downs, which ranks 136th. Tennessee doesn’t need to throw it to win this game by three scores.
Flip It Over and It Gets Worse
Now flip it. Tennessee’s defense is #7 in havoc and #3 in sack rate. Arkansas’ offensive line gives up havoc at the 125th-ranked rate. KJ Jackson is going to be running for his life all afternoon, and Arkansas is already 130th on early downs. I don’t see where their points come from.
The One Hesitation
My hesitation is the Tennessee passing game. It has been bad (#118 in EPA/Pass). Faizon Brandon got benched for George MacIntyre against Auburn, and Josh Heupel hasn’t named a starter. I get it. But Tennessee didn’t need the passing game against Auburn, and it doesn’t need it here.
THE BEST BET
Arkansas can’t stop the run and can’t protect its quarterback. Give me the Vols by 17 or more.
Tennessee -13.5
Odds subject to change
San Diego State vs Oregon State Best Bet
Match Details
Matchup: Pac-12 Conference
Week: 6
Location: Corvallis, Oregon
Venue: Reser Stadium
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET (USA Network)
The Aztecs Have No Business Being 2-3
San Diego State has no business being 2-3. The Aztecs got outgained by over 300 yards against Texas State and won on a kickoff return touchdown and a pick-six. Before that it was three straight losses to UCLA, JMU and Toledo. This team has been lucky (#31 in score vs. EPA), and the numbers underneath are horrible.
An Offense That Can’t Do Anything
The Aztecs’ offense is 131st in Adjusted Offense and 134th in EPA/Pass. They succeed on 34% of their plays, which ranks 137th. They convert 30% of their third and fourth downs, which ranks 135th. Jayden Denegal threw for 109 yards last week and has 5 touchdowns to 5 picks on the season. On top of that, they’re still dealing with a mumps outbreak that put 32 players on the availability report last week, including starting running back Lucky Sutton and their right guard. I don’t know how this offense scores more than 14.
Atkinson Is Going to Have All Day
Oregon State is the opposite. Braden Atkinson went 30-of-34 for 413 yards and 5 touchdowns at Colorado State, and he has thrown for 300+ in five straight games. This is a top-25 passing offense (#25 in EPA/Pass) going against a San Diego State pass defense that ranks 102nd, and the Aztecs don’t get any pressure to slow it down (#126 in front-seven havoc). Oregon State’s line gives up almost nothing (#7 in front-seven havoc allowed). Atkinson is going to have all day.
The One Hesitation
My hesitation is Oregon State’s defense. The Beavers gave up 33 to Houston, 35 to Texas Tech and 26 to Colorado State. SDSU’s run game is okay, but I don’t see a world where it keeps them in this game.
THE BEST BET
Oregon State has won the last five in this series by a combined 110-19. Give me the Beavers big.
Oregon State -14
Odds subject to change
