College Football Week 7 Best Bets:
Fireworks in Houston

College Football Best Bets: The Coogs Run the Show

No. 18 Oklahoma State rolls into TDECU Stadium on a four-game win streak to face No. 20 Houston in a ranked Big 12 matchup. The numbers under that streak tell a different story. Houston has one of the best offenses in the country, Oklahoma State has been living on the edge, and neither defense looks ready to slow down the other side. Here’s the breakdown.

Match Details

Matchup: No. 18 Oklahoma State vs No. 20 Houston (Big 12)

Week: 7

Location: Houston, Texas

Venue: TDECU Stadium

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

Houston Is the Better Team, and It’s Not That Close

Oklahoma State is ranked and on a four-game win streak. I still think Houston is the better team and it is not that close. Houston is #5 in Adjusted Offense. Oklahoma State is #40. Houston is #7 in success rate and #7 in EPA/drive. Oklahoma State is #22 and #46. The gap between these two offenses is a lot bigger than the gap in the rankings.

The Cowboys’ Scoreboard Is Lying

The Cowboys lost at Tulsa 24-10 to open the year. Since then the scoreboard has looked great, but they gave up 31 to Oregon, 24 to West Virginia, and 28 to a UCF team playing its backup quarterback. They were tied 21-21 at halftime with UCF at home and needed a fumble return touchdown off a backward pass to put it away.

Houston Keeps It, Oklahoma State Punts

Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris said it himself Monday. Too many busted assignments and bad edge-setting against the run. And this is where Houston is going to hurt them. Houston converts 59.5% of its third and fourth downs, #2 in the country. Oklahoma State converts 37.7%, which is #105. Houston just went to Manhattan and ran for 233 yards on Kansas State while holding the ball for almost 35 minutes.

Quarterback Conner Weigman went 19 of 30 for 242 and 4 touchdowns with no picks. When Houston has the ball they keep it, and when Oklahoma State has it they are punting. Houston is also #6 in net field position and Oklahoma State is 88th. That is a hidden touchdown over four quarters.

Mestemaker Keeps the Cowboys Ahead of the Chains

I fully expect a shootout here. Oklahoma State’s last four games went 70, 59, 65 and 70 total points. QB Drew Mestemaker threw for 304 on UCF with six completions of 20 or more yards, his fourth straight 300-yard game. The Cowboys are #4 in early-down EPA, so they are ahead of the chains all day, and they get a Houston defense that is 103rd in EPA/pass allowed and 99th in EPA/drive allowed. Houston’s raw defense is 100th in EPA/play.

Houston Does Not Stall

Houston scores 40 a game and needs to. The other side is even cleaner. Houston’s offense is #13 in EPA/pass, #8 in pass success rate, and #3 in available yards gained. They do not stall. Oklahoma State’s defense has been ordinary by the numbers (#51 EPA/play, #65 in rush success allowed), and Morris is still cleaning up those busted assignments. Weigman has a 4-touchdown game in two of his last four.

College Football Best Bets

Houston is 3-0 at home and beat this team 39-17 last year. I think they run it right at them, control the clock, and win by a touchdown or more. Both quarterbacks are playing well, both defenses have holes, and Houston has already played a 70 and an 83 this year. I have this total in the mid 60s. Give me Houston and the over.