Texans at Steelers
The Texans have surged into the playoffs, winning nine straight games. Houston’s defense has been outstanding all season, and its offense has started to improve as well. The Steelers will face a tough challenge on offense, although the return of DK Metcalf to the lineup after his suspension definitely gives them a boost. Can Pittsburgh generate enough offense to pull off the home upset on Monday night? Let’s analyze the matchup and find out.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from Weeks 1-17; DVOA reflects full-season opponent-adjusted performance
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When the Texans Have the Ball
Run Game
The Texans’ offensive line has been a major weakness all season, and they rank just 32nd in run-block win rate. As a result, Houston’s run game has been unreliable, and they sit 29th in early-down rushing success rate. Tytus Howard, the team’s top offensive lineman, performed significantly better after he was moved inside to guard, and Trent Brown’s return definitely provided a boost, but these improvements only elevated the Texans to the 26th-ranked rushing offense in early-down success rate from Weeks 11-17.
Pittsburgh boasts a significantly improved run defense heading into this game, as it ranked 4th in early-down rushing success rate allowed from Weeks 10-18. In the win over the Ravens in Week 18, the Steelers successfully contained Derrick Henry, limiting Baltimore to a mere 24% rushing success rate on early downs - that would be the best in the league over a full season.
Houston primarily uses a man/duo run scheme, ranking second in total attempts at 141. They had moderate success on those runs, ranking 14th with 4.09 YPC. However, the Steelers have been elite against man/duo runs lately - they’ve allowed 3.34 YPC (7th-fewest) and a 42.6% success rate (5th-lowest) against those runs since Week 10.
With Joe Mixon injured all year and Nick Chubb struggling to find efficiency, rookie Woody Marks has taken over as the lead back, but he ranks just 48th out of 49 qualified RBs with 3.59 YPC. He’ll face an uphill battle against a defensive line featuring All-Pro Cameron Heyward and emerging young talents Keeanu Benton and Derrick Harmon.
Given Houston’s scheme tendencies and persistent blocking issues, this profiles as a difficult matchup for the Texans’ ground game to consistently succeed.
Pass Game
While the Texans’ rushing game continues to struggle, C.J. Stroud has been playing much better football lately as he’s started to gel more with first-year offensive coordinator Nick Caley. Since Week 10, Stroud ranks 9th in adjusted EPA per play and 7th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A).
However, Stroud’s season-long metrics against pressure remain poor, and the Texans head into this game with the 30th-ranked offensive line in pass-block win rate. The Steelers rank 4th in pass-rush win rate and aren’t hesitant to send extra rushers - their 28.7% blitz rate ranks 5th. Stroud ranks 28th in ANY/A against both the blitz and pressure, and he’ll need to find a way to improve that efficiency.
Nico Collins figures to benefit from this matchup, however. He jumps from 0.23 TPRR and 2.04 YPRR with no blitz to 0.33 TPRR and 3.67 YPRR when blitzed. Caley’s offense has significantly increased Stroud’s responsibilities at the line of scrimmage. If he can identify the extra rusher at the line and audible to Collins as his hot read, we could see the duo connect on a big play against the blitz.
The Steelers also rank 7th in single-high rate (56.1%) and 6th in man coverage (33.1%). Stroud jumps from 6.41 YPA (26th) against two-high to 8.01 YPA (10th) against single-high. Collins is the primary beneficiary, jumping from 1.81 YPRR against two-high to 3.16 YPRR against single-high. Pittsburgh also allowed 113.8 yards per game to perimeter WRs (7th-most) and ranked 18th in DVOA vs WR1s, allowing 72.7 yards per game (4th-most).
Pittsburgh’s pressure-heavy, single-high approach creates volatility, and Collins is the primary Houston receiver capable of punishing that style.
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When the Steelers Have the Ball
Run Game
The Steelers’ run game has been steady this season as Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell have both put together productive campaigns. Pittsburgh’s offensive line ranks 9th in run-block win rate, setting up one of the most fascinating battles in the trenches of the first round of the playoffs against Houston’s defensive line, which ranks 5th in adjusted line yards.
The Texans’ Tommy Togiai deserves more mainstream love - he leads all qualified defensive linemen with a 14.1% run stop rate, albeit on just 207 run defense snaps. He’ll be matched up against the Steelers’ center Zach Frazier, who has had a standout campaign.
Pittsburgh uses zone concepts at the third-highest rate in the league (56.1%), and it ranks 7th in success rate (51.6%) for those looks. Warren and Gainwell both rank in the top-14 out of 50 qualified RBs for success rate on zone runs. However, the Texans have allowed just 3.77 YPC and a 43% success rate on zone runs (both the third-fewest).
The Steelers rank 9th in early-down rushing success rate, while the Texans rank 10th on defense. This is a strength-on-strength matchup, and if the Texans can limit the Steelers’ ability to run on early downs and force Aaron Rodgers into long down-and-distance situations, it will be a long day for Pittsburgh’s offense.
Pass Game
The Steelers rank third in pass-block win rate this season, but this might be their toughest challenge of the year against the Texans’ Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter - both Texans edge rushers rank in the top six in pass-rush win rate per PFF. Former 2022 UDFA Dylan Cook stepped in at left tackle in Week 15 for Pittsburgh and has been a stabilizing presence, ranking 10th out of 92 qualified OTs in PFF’s pass-blocking grades, but this is a huge test.
Keeping Rodgers upright will be critical for the Steelers to find any semblance of offensive success. His 57.3% adjusted completion rate under pressure ranks dead last out of quarterbacks with 100+ pressured dropbacks, and he’s been unwilling to hang in the pocket and take hits at times this season.
Pittsburgh hopes that DK Metcalf’s return can make a big impact on the passing game, as they haven't found many other dependable receivers. However, the Texans have allowed just 84.9 receiving yards per game to perimeter targets (5th-fewest) with a 53% catch rate (lowest). They also rank 6th in DVOA against WR1s. Metcalf will be shadowed all night by the league’s top cornerback duo, Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter.
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Game Script Framing
How Houston Will Win: The Texans have a cleaner path to explosive upside on offense here as C.J. Stroud can take advantage of the Steelers’ blitzing defense with downfield shots to Nico Collins. While their run game faces an uphill battle, the Texans can lean on their elite defense to drive another win.
How Pittsburgh Will Win: Maintaining their consistent rushing success will be crucial for the Steelers here, as they need to prevent Aaron Rodgers from sitting in third-and-long situations against the Texans’ pass rush. In this projected low-scoring game, if the Steelers win the turnover battle and play clean on special teams, they can pull off the upset at home.
Overall Game Script: This game features a 38.5-point over/under, and perhaps more than any matchup on the slate this week, it will come down to the battles in the trenches. In a projected low-volume offensive game, these quarterbacks’ ability to handle pressure will be crucial for sustaining drives and securing a victory.
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Props This Game Points Towards
Woody Marks rushing consistency concerns
C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins passing explosive upside
Aaron Rodgers passing volume concerns
DK Metcalf limited ceiling against Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter
