The Patriots have been one of the best stories in the NFL this year, jumping from a 4-13 record to 14-3 under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. After an elite second NFL season, Drake Maye must prove his MVP candidacy can translate to the postseason. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert will search for his first playoff win against a defense that remains unproven after picking on a weak schedule. This AFC battle features tons of intriguing matchup angles - let’s dive in.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from Weeks 1-17; DVOA reflects full-season opponent-adjusted performance
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When the Chargers Have the Ball
Run Game
The offensive line has been a weak point for the Chargers all year, and its issues extend to run-blocking - they rank 27th in adjusted line yards and 31st in run-block win rate. The absence of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt has definitely hurt, as both are on IR, but the Chargers' interior offensive line has also faced struggles. Overall, this offense ranks just 25th in early-down rushing success rate.
The Patriots’ run defense cratered over the back half of the season, but the absences of Milton Williams and Robert Spillane were a major culprit. Over the first ten weeks with Williams and Spillane in the lineup, the Patriots allowed the 5th-lowest early-down rushing success rate and allowed the 7th-fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.45). From Weeks 11-17, however, they ranked 28th in early-down rushing success rate allowed and coughed up the most yards before contact per attempt (3.06). Spillane’s 1.9% missed tackle rate is the third-lowest out of 57 qualified LBs with 250+ run defense snaps, so his return here is massive.
The Chargers mainly operate in the middle of the field, ranking 11th in man/gap rate (41.8%) and recording the third-most rush attempts to the A gaps (145) during the regular season. In the first ten weeks, with Williams and Spillane, the Patriots allowed just 3.16 YPC on man/gap scheme runs and 2.45 YPC on A gap runs (both the lowest).
Omarion Hampton is expected to play, but after missing practice time and wearing an ankle brace this week, it’s difficult to project him as fully healthy. While Kimani Vidal will be available to handle some touches, the burden will fall on Justin Herbert to sustain offensive flow as the Chargers’ run game profiles as inefficient and unlikely to be a focal point of their success.
Pass Game
The Chargers rank 5th in early-down neutral script pass play rate and 8th in pass rate over expectation, and as 3.5-point underdogs, this could be a pass-heavy outing for them. The Patriots’ defense looks solid on paper, ranking 10th in EPA/pass allowed, but I remain unconvinced as they’ve faced a pillow-soft schedule of opposing QBs - they rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA. Outside of two matchups against Josh Allen, Justin Herbert will be by far the best quarterback they’ve seen all season.
Herbert has a slew of talented pass-catchers to lean on with Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Oronde Gadsden II all posting 500+ receiving yards this year. The issue has been protection as the Chargers rank 32nd in pass-block win rate.
However, the Patriots are not well-equipped to exploit this weakness, ranking 24th in pressure rate (20.3%) and 26th in adjusted sack rate. Christian Barmore has been the team’s most productive pass rusher, ranking 9th among qualified interior defensive linemen with a 13.4% pass-rush win rate, but Herbert has been effective when forced out of the pocket, ranking 4th among qualified QBs in adjusted net yards per attempt when throwing on the move.
New England has leaned more heavily into single-high and man coverage, ranking top-12 in both from Weeks 11-17, and the Chargers have faced top-12 rates of both, so those tendencies would make sense to continue here. Johnston could be the biggest benefactor as he climbs from 0.14 TPRR and 1.11 YPRR against two-high to 0.20 TPRR and 1.96 YPRR against single-high.
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When the Patriots Have the Ball
Run Game
One area of growth for the Patriots through the season has been their run game. After ranking 29th in early-down rushing success rate (32.1%) and yards before contact per attempt (1.31) through Weeks 1-8, the Patriots climbed to 17th in early-down rushing success rate (38.8%) and 8th in yards before contact per attempt (2.23) from Weeks 9-17.
Over that span, they leaned more heavily into man/gap scheme runs, ranking 3rd in usage rate at 49.8%. The Patriots generated 4.73 YPC on those man/gap concepts, and that sets them up for success here, as the Chargers have allowed a 54.1% success rate on man/gap concepts (7th-highest).
Rookie TreVeyon Henderson’s efficiency has improved over the course of the season, and from Weeks 9-17, he’s averaging 5.53 YPC (3rd out of 49 qualified RBs). He’s shown growing big-play ability, and he could generate some chunk yardage against a Chargers defense allowing the 11th-highest explosive rush rate on man/gap runs (5%).
Pass Game
Of course, the heart and soul of this Patriots team is second-year quarterback and likely MVP Drake Maye. He’s had a phenomenal season, ranking first in adjusted EPA per play and yards per attempt (8.93). However, the Chargers might be the toughest pass defense he’s faced all season, and Jesse Minter’s team is uniquely well-equipped to limit Maye’s potential.
Maye has had an otherworldly season on deep-ball attempts, ranking 4th with a 56.7% adjusted completion rate on 20+ yard throws. However, the Chargers’ defense is built to take away explosive plays through the air with the 4th-highest two-high safety rate (58.1%) and 8th-highest zone coverage rate (76.6%).
Maye’s effectiveness has decreased against two-high coverage this year, as his 10.12 YPA versus single-high (1st) drops to 7.37 against two-high (9th). Minter’s goal will be to force Maye to consistently succeed with timing and accuracy over the middle of the field while limiting the explosive plays that have defined this offense.
Minter’s defense does an excellent job of limiting explosive passes, as the Chargers rank first in pass defense DVOA against deep throws and have allowed a 30.9% completion rate (5th-lowest). Kayshon Boutte’s upside could be capped as a result - he leads the Pats with a 28.7% air-yard share and 17.5 yards per game on 20+ yard throws.
This game is favorable for Stefon Diggs, who could be more involved on a consistent basis than he was for much of this season. Diggs only had a 65.4% route share this year, but he led the Pats with 0.25 TPRR and 2.53 YPRR. His splits have remained steady across different coverages this year, but he’s the only Pats receiver averaging over 2 YPRR against two-high coverage.
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Game Script Framing
How Los Angeles Will Win: As it has for much of this season, it comes down to Herbert for the Chargers, and he should find success against an untested secondary. The Patriots allowed a 70.3% touchdown rate in the red zone through Week 17, the highest in the NFL, so if Herbert can expose some of the flaws in their secondary, he will likely finish drives with touchdowns more often than not.
How New England Will Win: The Patriots must prove that their offensive success this year was not merely a product of their schedule, and continuing to lean on their much-improved run game against a vulnerable Chargers run defense will go a long way toward doing so.
Overall Game Script: This will be the biggest test of Maye’s career to this point against an elite pass defense that specializes in taking away explosive plays through the air. Herbert will challenge the Patriots' defense in ways they haven’t been this year, and Maye will need to overcome the tough matchup to secure the home win.
Props This Game Points Towards
Chargers rushing volume and consistency concerns
Justin Herbert and Quentin Johnston pass game upside
TreVeyon Henderson rushing explosive potential
Drake Maye leaning on passing consistency and volume over the deep game
