Bills at Broncos
The Broncos open the playoffs aiming for revenge against the Bills, who defeated them 31-7 in last year's Wild Card round. The Broncos do have several important situational advantages here. Coming off the bye week, they’ll face the Bills, who are playing their second straight road game on a short week. Denver also has one of the best home-field advantages in the league, and Buffalo will be forced to play at altitude with injuries piling up. Let’s analyze the matchup and see if those advantages carry over into the schematics.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from Weeks 1-17; DVOA reflects full-season opponent-adjusted performance
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When the Bills Have the Ball
Run Game
The Bills have boasted one of the most effective run games in the NFL this season, ranking 5th in early-down rushing success rate and 4th in explosive rush rate, but the Broncos’ top-3 run defense failed to hold up when these teams met in the Wild Card round last year. Buffalo controlled the ball for nearly 42 minutes as its offense posted 44 rushing attempts for 210 yards, including James Cook’s 23 carries for 120 yards.
Denver tried to fix these issues during the offseason by adding two former 49ers defenders, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga. Greenlaw has been in and out of the lineup with injuries, playing only eight games, but his downhill presence will be vital against the run. Hufanga also ranks third on the team with 30 run stops, and the Broncos will likely use him frequently in the box to help stop the run.
The Bills will attempt to bully the Broncos with their heavy man/duo offense, which ranked 3rd in the regular season with 138 attempts. The Broncos have allowed just a 50% success rate on those runs this year (7th-lowest). Buffalo also loves outside zone carries, ranking 12th in total attempts. Denver allowed just 3.39 YPC (3rd-lowest) with a 3.1% explosive rush rate (5th-lowest) on outside zone carries in the regular season, and their front seven will need to be assignment-sound to continue that success here.
Buffalo has three tight ends - Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes - who have been impactful in the run game this season, and it deploys fullback Reggie Gilliam as an extra blocker. Those heavy personnel packages may give Denver fits with its athletic front seven, which is designed for pass-rushing upside rather than down-to-down physicality.
Pass Game
To help stymie the Bills’ run game, the Broncos will likely deploy Hufanga in the box regularly. Denver used single-high coverage at a 65.6% rate in the Wild Card round last year, which would rank 2nd in the regular season this year, and Buffalo faced single-high coverage at a 64.3% rate this season. With P.J. Locke taking over for an injured Brandon Jones at free safety, single-high looks could create opportunities for Josh Allen to hit explosives in the passing game. According to PFF, Locke allowed five catches for 92 yards and a TD in coverage against the Bills in the playoffs last year, earning a 28.5 coverage grade.
The Broncos’ trademark is heavy man coverage— their 37.2% man coverage rate ranked third in the regular season, and they used it at a 40.6% rate against the Bills in last year's playoffs. Buffalo has faced man coverage more than any other team this season, as their wide receivers have struggled to get separation all year. Josh Allen's completion rate drops from 75.3% and 8.5 YPA against zone— ranking 4th among 40 qualified QBs in EPA/DB— to a 61.1% completion rate and 7.3 YPA against man, ranking 21st in EPA/DB.
With Josh Palmer, Gabe Davis, and Tyrell Shavers all on IR, the Bills’ already uninspiring WR room is running out of options. Brandin Cooks has emerged as a threat over the team’s last two games (excluding Week 18), catching 7 balls for 159 yards against the Eagles and Jaguars. He also led the team with 4.18 YPRR over those two contests. With his 24.7-yard aDOT, he’s the most likely recipient of an Allen deep ball at some point here.
Khalil Shakir had a massive game last week, posting 12 catches for 82 yards despite a paltry 1.8-yard aDOT. The Bills will likely pepper him with targets here, and slot corner Ja’Quan McMillan will need to step up for the Broncos. With Jones sidelined and the Bills relying on Shakir and their tight ends, this could also be a game where rookie first-round pick Jahdae Barron is asked to play a larger role for Denver, especially if Buffalo leans into quick-game concepts to counter man coverage.
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When the Broncos Have the Ball
Run Game
J.K. Dobbins remains on IR, and while there’s a chance he could return later in a deep playoff run, Denver will be without its top running back on Saturday. That adds pressure on rookie R.J. Harvey, who has flashed upside but has struggled after taking over as the lead back. Since Week 11, Harvey has ranked just 42nd out of 45 qualified RBs with just 3.40 YPC.
Denver’s offensive line has been one of the best in the league all season, ranking 4th in run-block win rate, and it should have the advantage against a Buffalo defensive line that ranks 22nd in run-stop win rate. The Bills have faced numerous injuries in the front seven, which have severely impacted their run defense, and they allowed the Jaguars to run for 6.70 YPC last week with a 13% explosive rush rate.
Since taking over as the lead back, 64.9% of Harvey’s runs have come on man/gap scheme concepts (the highest over that span, including W18). That should make this a great matchup, as the Bills have allowed 5.12 YPC on man/gap scheme runs (4th-most). Despite the favorable matchup, Harvey has struggled to turn those runs into production, averaging just 2.77 YPC on man/gap runs over that span.
The Broncos’ running backs combined for only 11 carries for 35 yards in the Wild Card round last year, and they have to find a way to get more production. That failure spurred the decision to sign Dobbins and draft Harvey, and with Dobbins still sidelined, Harvey is a pivotal part of this game.
Pass Game
While the Bills’ run defense has collapsed this year, their pass defense has remained sturdy, ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA and 9th in EPA/DB allowed. Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich have done an excellent job of coaching up that unit this year. The Bills ranked 2nd in two-high safety rate during the regular season (58.7%), and they played at a 75% rate against the Broncos in the Wild Card round last year. I’d expect that to continue here as Bo Nix’s efficiency has been much better against single-high than two-high coverage across various metrics.
That’s also true for Courtland Sutton, who drops from 0.26 TPRR and 2.32 YPRR against single-high to 0.18 TPRR and 1.41 YPRR against two-high, while Troy Franklin sees a similar decline, dropping from 0.26 TPRR and 2.05 YPRR against single-high to 0.19 TPRR and 1.08 YPRR against two-high.
The Bills have excelled against perimeter receivers, giving up just 83.3 yards per game to targets aligned out wide through Week 17 (4th-fewest). Instead, Buffalo directs targets inside, with a 35.9% slot target rate that ranks first. Pat Bryant might be the player to step up for Denver here, as the rookie wide receiver has a 57.8% slot rate and performs better against two-high coverage, increasing to 0.21 TPRR and 1.68 YPRR from 0.13 TPRR and 0.99 YPRR against single-high.
Nix should have plenty of time to operate in the pocket here, as the Bills rank just 27th in pass-rush win rate and rank below-average in blitz rate. The Broncos, led by All-Pro left tackle Garett Bolles, rank 8th in pass-block win rate and have allowed the lowest adjusted sack rate. Buffalo will also be short-handed in the secondary with veteran safety Jordan Poyer and standout rookie corner Maxwell Hairston both sidelined.
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Game Script Framing
How Buffalo Will Win: Just like they did against the Broncos in the playoffs last year, the Bills will need to rely heavily on their run game to secure a win in Denver. It’s unlikely Allen will find consistent success with this group of receivers against the Broncos’ man-heavy defense, but a steady rushing attack combined with a few big plays in the passing game could be enough on that side of the ball.
How Denver Will Win: With J.K. Dobbins sidelined, the onus is on R.J. Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin to step up just enough to take advantage of a vulnerable Bills run defense. Bo Nix’s upside will be capped here against Buffalo’s two-high structure that limits explosive plays, and Sean Payton will need to bring a balanced game plan to keep his offense on the field.
Overall Game Script: The team that dominates on the ground—even without explosive plays—will probably come out on top. The Bills face one of their toughest challenges this season against a Broncos run defense that has improved after being dominated by Buffalo last year, while Denver's battered front seven has plenty of vulnerabilities to target.
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Props This Game Points Towards
James Cook prioritizing rushing volume over efficiency
Josh Allen showing volume volatility with selective explosive upside
R.J. Harvey's volume raising questions about efficiency
Bo Nix capped upside with limited perimeter efficiency, capping the upside for Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin
