49ers at Seahawks
After splitting their season series with a 49ers win in Week 1 and a Seahawks win in Week 18, these NFC West rivals will face off in a decisive rematch with a trip to the NFC Championship game on the line. The 49ers scored the biggest upset of the first round, beating the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, but they lost All-Pro tight end George Kittle in the process and are extremely shorthanded on defense. Let’s examine Seattle’s schematic advantages that suggest a win here.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from Weeks 1-17; DVOA reflects full-season opponent-adjusted performance
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When the 49ers Have the Ball
The 49ers did what they’ve done all season on Sunday, as Kyle Shanahan once again found a way to overcome the team’s massive amount of injuries against one of the top-five defenses in the NFL. Ricky Pearsall missed the game, George Kittle suffered a season-ending torn Achilles early, and the 49ers still posted a 52% offensive success rate for the game that would have led the league during the regular season.
Now, Shanahan will need to do it again against Seattle’s defense, which leads the league in defensive DVOA.
Run Game
It was not a banner year for Christian McCaffrey running the ball, as his 3.89 YPC ranked 38th out of 48 qualified RBs during the regular season. He generated just 3.2 YPC last week against the Eagles, and the loss of George Kittle is a significant blow to the team’s run blocking which has already struggled at times - San Francisco ranked just 26th in yards before contact per attempt (1.61) during the regular season.
Seattle boasted the best run defense in the NFL by DVOA during the regular season, allowing just 1.41 yards before contact per attempt (3rd-fewest) and a 2% explosive rush rate (lowest). The Seahawks maintained this elite run defense despite frequently using nickel packages on early downs, one of the highest rates in the league. Rookie Nick Emmanwori’s impact as an extra box defender in run defense has been crucial.
The 49ers used zone concepts at the second-highest rate in the league during the regular season (57.1%), but the Seahawks have allowed only 3.86 YPC on zone scheme runs, the fifth-fewest. In their two regular season matchups, San Francisco averaged just 3.34 YPC on zone runs.
Across their two matchups this season, Seattle held San Francisco to a 41.7% rushing success rate, which would have ranked 31st this season. Kyle Shanahan will need to find a way to generate more production from the team’s running game, but without Kittle and facing this tough defense, it’s a challenging matchup.
Pass Game
The Seahawks stymied Brock Purdy in that Week 18 matchup, holding him to a paltry 4.7 YPA as the 49ers could never find a rhythm through the air. Almost 80% of Purdy’s passes came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage as he was pressured on 46.9% of his dropbacks with Trent Williams inactive, and could never access the downfield passing game.
That was on brand for this defense - the Seahawks blitz on the 6th-fewest dropbacks this season but rank 5th in pressure rate. Seattle also funnels targets underneath, forcing the second-most pass attempts within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and the most checkdown attempts. That led to 6 catches on 7 targets for McCaffrey a couple of weeks ago, but the Seahawks rallied to the ball and held him to 34 yards (5.6 YPR).
The 49ers will hope to get Ricky Pearsall back on the field, but he hasn’t been fully healthy all year, and the Seahawks allowed just 78.6 receiving yards per game to perimeter targets in the regular season, the fewest in the NFL. That’s also bad news for Jauan Jennings, who was the leading pass-catcher with 4 catches for 35 yards in Week 18 but was mostly stymied by Seattle’s elite secondary led by Devon Witherspoon. With George Kittle also now sidelined, the 49ers don’t have clear paths to receiving production here.
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When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Run Game
The 49ers’ front seven has been battered by injuries this season, with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa as the headline absentees, and the Seahawks had their most productive outing of the season in Week 18 against that group. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet combined for 171 yards on 33 carries (5.2 YPC). The 49ers still had linebackers Dee Winters and Tatum Bethune on the field in that game, and both missed last week’s matchup against the Eagles, although Winters could return here.
The Seahawks are primarily a zone running team, ranking 6th in frequency (53.6%). The 49ers have been torched on zone runs all season, allowing a 58.6% success rate (highest) and 4.78 YPC (3rd-most). San Francisco has allowed a 9.2% explosive rush rate on outside zone runs, the highest in the NFL, and Seattle has a 6.7% explosive rush rate on those carries. With backups all over the front seven for the Niners, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Walker and Charbonnet rip off some chunk runs as they did in Week 18.
Pass Game
Sam Darnold sustained an oblique injury this week during practice, but it’s not expected to prevent him from playing on Saturday. Among 45 qualified quarterbacks this season, Darnold ranks 2nd in YPA and 8th in adjusted completion percentage, fitting well within Klint Kubiak’s offense. He should have a clean pocket to operate from, as the 49ers are dead last in adjusted sack rate this year, and Robert Saleh prefers to play solid coverage rather than send extra rushers with the blitz.
In Week 18, the 49ers used single-high coverage 56.6% of the time. Since Week 11, including the Wild Card round, they rank 10th in single-high coverage at 53.8%. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has excelled against single-high coverage, ranking second among qualified wide receivers with 3.81 YPRR, and he totalled 15 catches for 208 yards in two games against the 49ers this season. Cooper Kupp has also been much more effective against single-high, increasing to 2.01 YPRR from 1.05 YPRR against two-high.
The Seahawks have plenty of matchup advantages, as Darnold and JSN should produce against a beat-up 49ers defense that struggles to get pressure, but the Seahawks may not need to pass much to move the ball in this game. They had just a 41.9% early-down neutral-script pass play rate in Week 18, which would be the lowest rate in the league over the full season.
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Game Script Framing
How San Francisco Will Win: Last week’s performance against the Eagles might have been the most impressive coaching job of Kyle Shanahan’s career, and he’ll need to pull a rabbit out of a hat again this week against arguably the best defense in the NFL.
How Seattle Will Win: The Seahawks can follow a similar blueprint to their Week 18 win over the 49ers, leaning on their lights out defense and attacking San Francisco’s battered front seven on the ground to control time of possession and book a trip to the NFC Championship.
Overall Game Script: Shanahan and Mike Macdonald have been two of the top coaches in the league this season, and it’s fitting that we get a third matchup between these teams. While San Francisco’s performance last week deserves high praise, Seattle is playing with a much more complete roster right now, and its offense and defense are arguably the two best units on the field in this game as it currently stands.
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Props This Game Points Towards
Christian McCaffrey's efficiency and volume concerns.
Brock Purdy's capped downfield upside.
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet's explosive potential.
Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's efficiency but potentially limited volume.
