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PHI vs CAR
Makai Lemon (PHI) OVER 15.5 Rec Yds
-112 @ DK
Why we like it
Lemon will continue to operate as the slot receiver in 11 personnel, and Philadelphia uses 3WR sets at one of the highest rates in the league. Hurts has thrown toward the middle of the field on just 16.8% of his attempts, while 74.3% of Lemon’s routes have been toward the middle of the field.
CRY vs BHA
Brighton -1 AH
-125 @ 365
Why we like it
The Seagulls lead the league in several key metrics, including xG (2.15 per game), shots on target, big chances created, and possession won in the final third. Their high press has been particularly effective.
JAX vs HOU
Parker Washington (JAX) OVER 59.5 Rec Yds
-125 @ DK
Why we like it
Washington ranks among the league’s top 10 wide receivers in yards per route run and target share. Houston has struggled mightily against the pass this season, allowing the highest target share to opposing wide receivers and the third-most receiving yards to the position.
HOU vs JAX
Texans ML
+129 @ CZR
Why we like it
This is the BEST their offense has looked in years. I still have questions about the Jaguars defense and their ability to do well if they aren’t forcing turnovers.
NYJ vs NE
NYJ +7.5
-111 @ NOVIG
Why we like it
This defense leads the NFL in sack rate (9.6%), leads it in explosive plays allowed (15% of snaps), and is fourth in getting off the field on third and fourth down. New England is 27th against the run, 30th in line yards allowed, and dead last in stuff rate.
ALA vs TENN
Keelon Russell (ALA) UNDER 25.5 Rush Yds
-114 @ FD
Why we like it
Tennessee is 4th in Front 7 havoc and they sack the QB 4 times on average which is tied most in the country. I expect QB spies and Blitzs sent to Keelons way.
MIZ vs MISS
Donovan Olugbode (MIZ) OVER 54.5 Rec Yds
-114 @ FD
Why we like it
Donovan Olugbode has exceeded 54.5 yards in recent matchups against Florida, UABP, and Kansas. Ole Miss ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in yards per defensive back, pass explosives, and pass EPA per play.
ALA vs TEN
Keelon Russell (ALA) UNDER 240.5 Pass Yds
-115 @ FD
Why we like it
Tennessee ranks 4th in PPA and #1 in Pass Explosive. Keelon had 188 pass yards vs Kentucky and 185 pass yards vs Georgia.
TCU vs BAY
Jeremy Payne (TCU) UNDER 74.5 Rush Yds
-114 @ FD
Why we like it
TCU ranks 1st %ile in line yards. Baylor ranks 88th %ile in Rush EPA/Play, 87th %ile in Stuff %, and 90th %ile in Line yards.
OKST vs HOU
OVER 61.5 Total Points
-110 @ DK
Why we like it
Oklahoma State's last four games went 70, 59, 65 and 70 total points. Houston's offense is #13 in EPA/pass, #8 in pass success rate, and #3 in available yards gained.
Wake vs Cal
Wake Forest -9.5
-110 @ CZR
Why we like it
This offense is #1 in the country in EPA/play and #1 in EPA/drive. Cal is 127th in EPA/rush allowed and Wake is #24 in EPA/rush and #16 in rush success rate.
UNC vs Duke
Benjamin Hall (UNC) UNDER 50.5 Rush Yds
-115 @ FD
Why we like it
Benjamin is under this line 3/3 times when playing elite run defenses. Duke ranks 10th in rush explosive, 26th line yards, 3rd in 2nd level yards.
BYU vs ND
Journee Tonga (BYU) UNDER 30.5 Rush Yds
-117 @ CZR
Why we like it
BYU is comfortable to run their offense without a run game. Notre dame is 2nd in run success and 23rd in stuff.
CSU vs TXST
Ksaan Farrar (CSU) O232.5 Pass Yards
-115 @ HR
Why we like it
TXST is 17th %ile in YDS/DB, 5th %ile in Pass EPA, and 4th %ile in Pass Success %. Texas State is 108th in Pass down Success so I expect him to have a day.
CSU vs TXST
OVER 23.5 Texas State 1H Team Total
-110 @ DK
Why we like it
The Rams are 136th in defensive EPA/play and dead last (#138) in success rate allowed. The Bobcats are #14 in pass success rate and average 532 yards a game.
PHI vs CAR
Makai Lemon (PHI) OVER 15.5 Rec Yds
-112 @ DK
Why we like it
Lemon will continue to operate as the slot receiver in 11 personnel, and Philadelphia uses 3WR sets at one of the highest rates in the league. Hurts has thrown toward the middle of the field on just 16.8% of his attempts, while 74.3% of Lemon’s routes have been toward the middle of the field.
CRY vs BHA
Brighton -1 AH
-125 @ 365
Why we like it
The Seagulls lead the league in several key metrics, including xG (2.15 per game), shots on target, big chances created, and possession won in the final third. Their high press has been particularly effective.
JAX vs HOU
Parker Washington (JAX) OVER 59.5 Rec Yds
-125 @ DK
Why we like it
Washington ranks among the league’s top 10 wide receivers in yards per route run and target share. Houston has struggled mightily against the pass this season, allowing the highest target share to opposing wide receivers and the third-most receiving yards to the position.
HOU vs JAX
Texans ML
+129 @ CZR
Why we like it
This is the BEST their offense has looked in years. I still have questions about the Jaguars defense and their ability to do well if they aren’t forcing turnovers.
NYJ vs NE
NYJ +7.5
-111 @ NOVIG
Why we like it
This defense leads the NFL in sack rate (9.6%), leads it in explosive plays allowed (15% of snaps), and is fourth in getting off the field on third and fourth down. New England is 27th against the run, 30th in line yards allowed, and dead last in stuff rate.
ALA vs TENN
Keelon Russell (ALA) UNDER 25.5 Rush Yds
-114 @ FD
Why we like it
Tennessee is 4th in Front 7 havoc and they sack the QB 4 times on average which is tied most in the country. I expect QB spies and Blitzs sent to Keelons way.
MIZ vs MISS
Donovan Olugbode (MIZ) OVER 54.5 Rec Yds
-114 @ FD
Why we like it
Donovan Olugbode has exceeded 54.5 yards in recent matchups against Florida, UABP, and Kansas. Ole Miss ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in yards per defensive back, pass explosives, and pass EPA per play.
ALA vs TEN
Keelon Russell (ALA) UNDER 240.5 Pass Yds
-115 @ FD
Why we like it
Tennessee ranks 4th in PPA and #1 in Pass Explosive. Keelon had 188 pass yards vs Kentucky and 185 pass yards vs Georgia.
TCU vs BAY
Jeremy Payne (TCU) UNDER 74.5 Rush Yds
-114 @ FD
Why we like it
TCU ranks 1st %ile in line yards. Baylor ranks 88th %ile in Rush EPA/Play, 87th %ile in Stuff %, and 90th %ile in Line yards.
OKST vs HOU
OVER 61.5 Total Points
-110 @ DK
Why we like it
Oklahoma State's last four games went 70, 59, 65 and 70 total points. Houston's offense is #13 in EPA/pass, #8 in pass success rate, and #3 in available yards gained.
Wake vs Cal
Wake Forest -9.5
-110 @ CZR
Why we like it
This offense is #1 in the country in EPA/play and #1 in EPA/drive. Cal is 127th in EPA/rush allowed and Wake is #24 in EPA/rush and #16 in rush success rate.
UNC vs Duke
Benjamin Hall (UNC) UNDER 50.5 Rush Yds
-115 @ FD
Why we like it
Benjamin is under this line 3/3 times when playing elite run defenses. Duke ranks 10th in rush explosive, 26th line yards, 3rd in 2nd level yards.
BYU vs ND
Journee Tonga (BYU) UNDER 30.5 Rush Yds
-117 @ CZR
Why we like it
BYU is comfortable to run their offense without a run game. Notre dame is 2nd in run success and 23rd in stuff.
CSU vs TXST
Ksaan Farrar (CSU) O232.5 Pass Yards
-115 @ HR
Why we like it
TXST is 17th %ile in YDS/DB, 5th %ile in Pass EPA, and 4th %ile in Pass Success %. Texas State is 108th in Pass down Success so I expect him to have a day.
CSU vs TXST
OVER 23.5 Texas State 1H Team Total
-110 @ DK
Why we like it
The Rams are 136th in defensive EPA/play and dead last (#138) in success rate allowed. The Bobcats are #14 in pass success rate and average 532 yards a game.
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Live cumulative units across NBA, WNBA, NFL, NCAAF, EPL & the 2026 World Cup. Drawdowns included.
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