We just watched the greatest comeback in Finals history, a 29-point hole the Knicks climbed all the way out of, and now the series heads to San Antonio, with the Spurs staring down elimination, and New York 48 minutes from its first title since 1973. The Spurs had the blueprint and the lead and let it slip away. So the only questions that matter now are whether they actually fix what broke, and more importantly, how we make money off it. Let's get into it:
1) Why I'm still on KAT's Under:
Through the first two games, Karl-Anthony Towns was feasting on bigs and blowing past slower defenders. Once they put a wing on him from the tip and parked Wembanyama behind it, the blow-by vanished, and in Game 3, that meant 11 points on a 14% usage rate and a single paint touch. He has now spent more time guarded by Wembanyama than any other Knick on the floor, by a wide margin, and that matchup has smothered him two games running.
All the noise this week is some version of "the Knicks finally get KAT going." I'll say exactly what I said before Game 4: show me first. The piece people keep whiffing on is that in the comeback, KAT was not the scorer, he was the gravity. His value was setting the ghost screen that drags Wemby up so somebody else gets the runway. He hit a couple of genuinely tough shots in that fourth quarter and still walked away with 13 and 2. When looking at past performers, it reminds me of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Duren's energy, the big man everyone keeps waiting to erupt, while the defense quietly keeps the lid screwed on. The Spurs have no reason on earth to ditch the coverage that has worked, so if it ain't broke, they are not touching it. He went 25 combined in Game 2, 12 in Game 3, and 15 in Game 4, and the number only slid to 20.5.
As a result, I fired on KAT under 20.5 Points + Assists, and the combined number is the clean way to play it: double him and his assists climb while his scoring sinks, single-cover him and it flips, either way it lands in the same place. Foul trouble is the swing and it cuts both ways, it has chopped his minutes all series (which helps us), but I won't bet the whistle. This loses on a clean foul night where New York decides to ride him to the title, or a switch that lets him bully a smaller guy in the post.
2) Wembanyama
Everything in this series orbits where Wembanyama stands. From Games 1 through 3 the Spurs engineered him closer and closer to the rim: his average shot distance dropped 17 to 13 to 10.6 feet, his eFG climbed 33 to 57 to 67, and he got to a 50% rim frequency on 72.9% true shooting. Then Game 4 blew it up. New York spent the night running him into the action and dragging him to the perimeter, his distance ballooned back out, and he shot 3 of 14 in the second half on legs that were gone by the time it mattered (16 first-half points, 8 in the second, 44 minutes).
Here is the adjustment I'm watching for, and it is the biggest lever San Antonio has: stop overhelping. Game 4 was not just a shooting slump. The Spurs kept sending a second body at Brunson and tagging Wemby's rolls, and every one of those decisions put them in rotation, sped up the Knicks' offense, and coughed up open threes. If they trust Wemby on an island and quit the early doubles, the scramble looks that fueled the comeback dry up. That cuts straight across our card. It keeps Wemby home as the back-line anchor, which is good for the KAT under but it also chokes off a lot of the manufactured looks New York's role guys have been feasting on. The exception matters in a second: a Wemby who stays home is a Wemby sagging off the weak-side corner shooter, so those particular looks do not go away, they actually multiply.
On Wemby's own number, I'm circling his rebounds (13 in Game 4) as the bet that does not care whether he is tired or cold, because you grab boards with size and effort and he has plenty of both. Foul-out risk is basically nil with the refs protecting him from a second flagrant, and I'm leaving the blocks alone, since his help-block chances shrink the more they pull him into space.
3) It's time to trust Deuce McBride
This is where that overhelping adjustment matters most for a ticket, and it is why I like McBride even if the Spurs clean everything up. He is a pure catch-and-shoot piece: every made field goal he has in this series is assisted. He does not create, he gets fed, and both versions of this game feed him. If the Knicks drag Wemby out, McBride is the release valve on the Brunson and Alvarado drives.
If the Spurs do the smart thing and keep Wemby home, McBride is the corner shooter Wemby sags off of, which is a wide-open look by design. Either way, the looks come. PropsMadness backs it up: in his current role band, 6 to 10 minutes with 2 to 4 three-point attempts, he has hit at least one three in 7 of 9 games (77.8%), and that already bakes in his two cold Finals misses.
I'm on McBride over 0.5 threes made which I made my @ActionNetworkHQ piece. I understand there's risk. His run has been short and the hook is quick: miss the first one and he can get stapled to the bench in a closeout game.But one made three is a low bar for a guy who gets clean catch-and-shoot looks under either coverage.
4) OG and the perimeter the Spurs keep conceding.
OG Anunoby has been the single biggest beneficiary of San Antonio's help. The Knicks walked him off Fox and onto Castle across the series and he keeps ending up wide open in the corner off Brunson drives, where he is drilling 63.2% in this series. The 33 points on 7-of-9 from deep in Game 4 was the apex.
Here is the thing though: if the Spurs stop overhelping, OG's open threes are exactly the looks that tighten up, and 7-of-9 was never coming back anyway. So there is real regression baked into his number tonight. The catch is that fading a guy this hot in a clincher is how you get your heart broken, so I'm not firing it. His drives were also at his highest in Game 4.
5) Why Mitch Johnson won't give up on Fox
De'Aaron Fox was a disaster in the second half of Game 4, and it is worth being honest about how bad: all four of his turnovers came after halftime, the offense devolved into "De'Aaron go create" with no real sets, and he capped it by trying to lay the ball in with ten seconds left and a lead instead of just dribbling it out to draw a foul, the exact low-IQ closing mistake that hands games away. He is also clearly compromised, playing through a high ankle sprain, which is why the pull-up shooting has been ugly (12 points on 28% in Game 4), and OG has the matchup on him now, which is a brutal cover.
But here's the thing. They are running it right back with him as the engine anyway. Mitch Johnson all but said it at the podium, the ball is in Fox's hands at the end of the game and he has full confidence Fox delivers. That is less stubbornness than a lack of options. Fox is the lead orchestrator and they will win or die by his handeling. So San Antonio's plan in the backcourt, like everywhere else on this card, is continuity, ride the engine and pray a fresher, cleaner version of him shows up after two days off.
6) The Keldon Johnson game?
Is this the game where Keldon sees his highest minutes? I mean, it makes sense. He gives them downhill juice when the half-court stalls, size on the glass when Wemby gets pulled out, and a body to throw at Brunson. A guy like that is more value than Champagnie at this point and should have an elevated role. The problem is San Antonio has shown zero appetite to actually do it. Changing the starting lineup is not in their DNA, the whole posture this week has been run-it-back, and Keldon's own defensive lapses give them reasons not to expand him.
Regardless, New York is fine letting him shoot anyway, he is one of the guys their gap defense dares to let it fly. So I'm not chasing a Keldon number. His minutes are a tell, not a bet: if he gets a real first-half run tonight, that is your sign San Antonio actually changed something, and it would nudge me toward taking his live over hoping. Until I see it, I'm assuming the rotation looks like it has all series.
6) What actually decides it.
Two things I can't put a number on but you should keep in your head. First, the officiating: Game 4 was whistled far tighter than the rest of the series, and that is exactly what buried Castle in fouls and softened the one defender who can take Brunson by himself. If it loosens back up, San Antonio's point of attack gets its teeth back. Second, the start: the Spurs have led every single first quarter of this series. If it is New York up after twelve minutes tonight, that tells you plenty about where the Spurs' heads are after blowing the unblowable.
🔮 Predictions
- The series turned on the KAT containment, and the "get him going" story is the trap. → KAT under 20.5 P+A
- Stop the overhelping and Wemby anchors the paint again, which helps both the under and the glass. → Wemby rebounds over?
- Both coverages feed McBride open catch-and-shoot looks, the only real question is minutes. → McBride over 0.5 3PM
- OG regresses off a 7-of-9 night and tightens up if the help stops, but he is too hot to fade outright. → OG U2.5 3PM fade?
- Fox stays the engine and Keldon should see more run → Keldon plays a series-high minutes
- The whistle and the first quarter decide the script. → no moneyline for me tonight
Another grind coming, decided at the margins and at the line like every game in this series. The Spurs have the blueprint and two days to sit with what they did with it, so I expect a desperate, swing-from-the-heels start in San Antonio. But the coverage that has muzzled KAT is not going anywhere, and that is the number I trust most. Two I'm firing, one I'm letting the injury report decide. Let's go to work. Hopefully you enjoyed the article!
One last thing, and it is only for the people who actually read all the way down here instead of skimming the top for the picks: that habit right there is the whole edge, and it's the exact type of person I want in the room. So the next month is 30% off on me, no code, no catch, the link is all you need. Don't go blasting it around the timeline, just slide in, grab the board, and let's cash. Welcome to the inside.
