What a series this has been. The G1 double OT thriller is going to stick with me for years, the back and forth chess match between Mitch Johnson and Mark Daigneault has been the best part of the playoffs by far, and now we get the first WCF Game 7 since 2018 to decide who faces the red-hot Knicks. The Spurs took G6 in a 27-point home blowout to force this, but how will SGA and the Thunder respond? We get to see an Alien vs. the MVP, and a Finals berth is on the line tonight in OKC. Heading into Game 7, what do we know and how can we use that to make some money:
1) The Uncomfortable Lu Dort Situation
Okay, let's talk about him. According to DARKO (Daily Plus-Minus) metrics via Databallr.com, Lu Dort has been the worst player on either team in this series at -0.19. OKC has a 124.1 defensive rating with him on the court vs SAS, which is the kind of number that gets bench players cut or lose run. Dort shot 1-of-9 from three in G6, and even got played next to the garbage players in hopes to build his confidence (several multiple steps behind the line) because SAS has been comfortable leaving him completely open all series. At this point, starting him in Game 7 would be malpractice. Yet I still expect him to start. Daigneault is a process-confidence coach with veteran loyalty and Dort has been a Thunder lifer through the rebuild who's earned his minutes through years of POA defense.
What I'm really watching is the leash. If Dort plays his usual 22 minutes, OKC's spacing stays compromised and SAS keeps ignoring him on the corner attacks I want to see from the Thunder. If Daigneault yanks him by the 6 minute mark of Q1, that's a signal he's playing his best lineup tonight. Dort under his 9.5 PRA gets interesting considering SAS will continue to leave him open ofrom the corners and his 3PA may not even reach normal volume given how poorly the looks are coming. Same with his rebounds and assists if his minutes get compressed. The bigger structural angle though is Wallace, because his minutes come directly from Dort's reduction. Wallace's PRA line gets sharper the more compressed Dort gets, and at any number close to 14.5 I'm playing the over, an official play I posted.
2) Hartenstein's Importance
Isaiah Hartenstein played just 16 minutes in Game 6 which was a glaring under-utilization given his +3.06 DPM rating (3rd best player on the team). I played his under 8.5 rebounds last game, and due to the trailing game script, it was no surprise he got limited run. But it goes without saying how important he is in every facet of the offense. He led G5 in passes with 58, and his handoffs/high-screen pick and rolls are the structural mechanisms that unlock McCain's pullup shooting and Shai's mid-range looks. The OKC offense in G5 was a well-oiled machine, specifically beause Hartenstein was on the floor making the connecting plays and punishing Wemby with his push shots andc rolls when left along inside. Daigneault needs him at 26+ minutes tonight or OKC's offense gets stuck running middle PnR where Wemby will stay low for rim protection. I liked his over 7.5 points and over 2.5 assists. But now, the flip side of more Hartenstein is less Jaylin Williams, and Jaylin's u4.5 rebounds gets sharper because his G6 24 minutes was an outlier forced by Hartenstein's foul trouble/ gamescript. In a more neutral game with Hartenstein at 26+, Jaylin compresses to 15-18 minutes which puts him right at the line if not under. The other angle here is Kenrich Williams. If Jaylin isn't making shots, Daigneault has shown willingness to go to KWill as a small-ball 5 alongside Chet, and a G7 willingness to experiment could cut Jaylin's minutes even further down to 12-15 which makes the under a much cleaner play.
3) How It Ties Into Wemby's Shot Profile
Wemby is going to make or break this game for the Spurs, and it's going to come down to whether he's hitting his threes and how aggressive he is to start the game overall. In G6, he had 28 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks on 48% shooting and notably going 4-of-9 from three, and that's the version Mitch needs to see again tonight. Mitch's commitment to Wemby usage was clear before the series: "more than 15 shots, more than 20 points." He's been delivering on that in SAS wins and disappearing in SAS losses. The threes in G6 weren't random hot shooting; they were scheme-based reads he had to take. The "2-5 Empty 1 Flare" action Mitch designed specifically for this matchup gave Wemby three different ways to get open in G6 and OKC didn't have an answer for any of them. Iverson cut for Vassell to disguise, Castle flashes up, empty side PnR with Wemby, Champagnie flare for Fox. Three different defenses tried, three different threes made.
And with the idea that Hartenstein needs to see more run, it's even more important Wemby targets him to get him off the floor. For G7, Daigneault confirmed OKC is keeping their drop coverage and accepting the perimeter shots. His exact quote: "When he's making shots early like that over a hand, you tip your hat and you just try to root back into the controllables." That's an open invitation for Mitch to run the flare action from the opening tip. Wemby's 3PA line and his over 1.5 3PM line at -156 have backing, with Daigneault publicly committed to letting those shots come, as he's fine with lower-quality looks rather than letting the roll action punish them down low.
4) The Caruso/Wallace Corner Equation
Looking at each team's best punches, I believe OKC's path to a winning goes through their role players attacking the corners. In G5 when they dominated, Caruso had 6 assists and Wallace had 5, and almost all of those assists came from the corner-side actions. McCain's handoffs with Hartenstein at the elbow create the openings, then the ball swings to the weakside corner where SAS has been comfortable leaving shooters because Wemby anchors the middle. SAS's whole scheme is built on loading the strong side and trusting Wemby to clean up, which means the corners are open by design. In G6, OKC didn't run nearly enough corner attacks and reverted to middle PnR that just ran into Wemby. As viewers, we should expect to see more of these sets run in G7.
Without JDub, the corner roles get more important, not less, because Wallace and Caruso are the secondary creators who fill JDub's playmaking minutes. Wallace at any number close to 14.5 PRA tonight is my favorite play because his role is locked in as the corner shooter, secondary handler, and defensive disruptor, and his +12.1 net rating on/off in this series is the kind of number that gets you to start over Dort if Daigneault rolls the best lineup. In every competitive game, in this series following G1, Wallace has cleared 14.5 PRA easily (16 in G5, 20 in G3, 20 in G2). Caruso is more volatile because his variance is his whole thing, but if OKC runs the corner actions, I want to see both guys eat.
5) Stephon Castle and the SAS Backcourt
Castle has been the answer to Shai all series. His POA defense, plus length, plus physicality have held Shai to under 40% FG and forced him into the mid-range struggles we've documented. But Castle has also been foul-prone (3 PF in 16-minute stretches of G6), and his defensive style creates contact every possession. The G7 wrinkle is home whistles. We all know it's going to happen. Shai had 17 FTAs in G5 at OKC and just 3 in G6 in San Antonio. If Castle picks up 2 quick fouls in Q1, Mitch has a real problem because Bryant is a rookie, matching up against the league's top scorer on the road. Castle's offensive role matters too. He's become SAS's primary facilitator with Fox limited, posting 9 assists with 1 turnover in G6 and 8 in G5, and he's also the empty-side PnR initiator in Mitch's "2-5 Empty 1 Flare" set. OKC has been going UNDER screens on Castle's PnRs all series, which dares him to win with pullup jumpers, and he's been doing exactly that. His points line is in play (with foul-trouble concerns), and so is his over 3PM (see if you can try to get at live at 0.5).
The other two SAS backcourt pieces are Fox and Harper. Fox has been bad and we know it, with 4-of-15 in G5 and 1-of-9 in G6 and the ankle clearly bothering him, although he did miss some easy 3s he would normally make. But he had 7 assists in G6 and is too good of a player to stay this cold in an elimination game. I expect him to contribute better tonight even if not back to his usual self. Harper is the opposite story. He looked amazing in G6 with 18 points in 22 minutes, but a lot of those were extremely tough pull-up shots and contested mid-range jumpers that don't repeat at that clip. He's also not 100% healthy per Mitch, and his line is going to inflate after the breakout game. His under 10.5 points has value because of the shot quality regression, and his role won't expand any further than it already has, especially if Fox's offensive game is working tonight.
6) The MVP: Will SGA's Mid-Range Efficiency Regress?
And finally, that leads us to talking about the MVP. There is no team right now that's defended SGA better than the Spurs, and it's on him to step up. SGA is in his worst shooting stretch since he became a star. Through six games, he's been under 40% FG, has hit 50%+ once, and has reached 30+ points twice. He's been shooting 26% from three for the series and taking 12.5 mid-range attempts per game while making just 36% of them. That's almost 20% worse than his regular-season mid-range rate. The eye test confirms what the numbers say. His burst doesn't look right per multiple analysts. He's missing automatic left-hand transition layups. His mid-range pull-ups are sailing. There's a reported finger strain from the Sun series and he's been carrying the offensive load without JDub for three games. He doesn't look 100%, but tonight is the night he has to be.
SAS knows all of this and is daring him to keep taking those mid-range shots. Their scheme isn't a mistake; it's the entire defensive gam eplan. They've stopped doubling because they trust Castle's POA defense to funnel Shai into Wemby's deterrence zone and force the long two. They're betting Shai keeps missing those shots, and through six games they've been right. But this is Game 7 and Shai has to be Shai or OKC loses, period. The MVP has to step up in his biggest moment of the season. With this being a home game, we can expect his FT rate to climb back up again, and with the intense urgency to produce, Shai will do whatever he can to get to his spots, even if they will be uncomfortable. If you get bet on his attempts instead of his points (for efficiency), I like the over.
