The Spurs finally cracked the code in Game 3, snapping a 13-game Knicks streak that hadn't lost in 45 days and while doing so, took away KAT's presence. Now New York is home to a real decision to make: adjust back to what made them great, or watch this series slip into San Antonio's favor. The Spurs found their formula. The question is whether the Knicks take it away, and more importantly, how we make money off it. Let's get into it:
1) The KAT erasure, and the trap everyone's walking into.
The whole series turned on one thing: San Antonio figured out how to make Karl-Anthony Towns disappear. Through two games he was feasting on bigs, 8 of his first 10 points in Game 1 and 12 of his 21 in Game 2 came from blowing past slower defenders. In Game 3 the Spurs started a wing on him from the tip (Castle, Champagnie, Vassell, Keldon rotating through) and the blow-by vanished. A wing stays in front, and with Wemby waiting behind, they pushed KAT out of the paint entirely: one paint touch, a 14% usage rate, 11 points.
So the #1 objective should be to get KAT going again.
That's the obvious read, but I need to see it first. It's the exact thing the Spurs built this defense to stop, and it's the toughest in-game adjustment Brown has faced all playoffs. I expect a partial bounce-back at most, and it'll be scoring against size, not the hub passing the line is priced on. I'm on KAT under 21.5 points + assists, which I shared on @ActionNetworkHQ. The combined number is the clean way to play it: double him and his assists rise while his scoring sinks, single-cover him and it flips, either way it lands in the same place. He went 25 combined in Game 2, then 12 in Game 3.
2) An update on Victor Wembanyama:
Everything in this series orbits and correlates to where Wembanyama stands and finishes his shots. The Spurs have gotten him closer and more efficient every game; his average shot distance has gone from 17 to 13 to 10.6 feet, and his eFG has gone from 33 to 57 to 67, with his rim frequency up to 50% on 72.9% true shooting. The entire offense is now engineered to free him at the rim, and the refs are protecting him from a second flagrant, so foul-out risk is basically nil. I would expect the adjustment to find ways to drag him out to the perimeter, and his points dip, but his assists climb. Re-tag his rolls and he passes out for more assists. I'm not touching the blocks, though (but I bet it wins lol). The stay-home and box-out emphasis, plus the chance New York pulls him into more pick-and-roll (he defended just 14 in Game 3 versus 48 over the first two), means fewer help-block chances.
3) OG shifting away from Fox to Castle opens some unrealized value
Despite Fox going over 14.5 points in just 2 of his last 7 games, I believe this is the best "Over" to take on the slate. Why? The Knicks have walked OG off Fox across the series (18.6 to 13.7 to 12.8 partial possessions) and moved him more onto Castle, which leaves Bridges on Fox now, a softer cover. From there he gets to attack the KAT-heavy drop for pull-ups and paint touches, Mitch Johnson trusts him completely (he got the ball for the Game 3 dagger), and his shooting is begging to regress off 2-of-11 from three. Even on an ugly 4-of-14 night he scored 12 on pure volume, so that's the floor a hobbled Fox still clears. With Fox banged up, the Spurs are also leaning harder on Castle to drive and create, and he can't be schemed out of it: 14 potential assists, team-high touch time, the optical-deception hub plus the primary Brunson stopper.
4) The Brunson bind and the role players.
San Antonio is daring Brunson to beat them one-on-one, and he's taken the bait: 3-of-15 on drives in Game 3, 13 assists and 13 turnovers on the series, big volume but capped efficiency. Harper, Castle, Vassell, and Champagie are all capable defenders and the Knicks can't keep letting the offense be stalled while Brunson collects dribbles. The Knicks' fix for the stagnation is a second ball-handler taking some load off Brunson, and the on/off backs it: they're -13 in all-Brunson minutes this series but net even or better when he's paired up, +0 with McBride and +4 with Clarkson. So don't be surprised if Brown leans into more double-guard looks to get the ball moving. Just know the bench-guard run in Game 3 was inflated by Bridges' foul trouble, so the cleaner version of that relief is a healthy Bridges playing connector, not Alvarado or Clarkson eating big minutes.
Either way, watch Bridges' fouls early, his minutes drive their whole offense. I actually leaned Brunson's over 2.5 3s because I believe this game we'll see him more off-ball and be able the team be able to manipulate the defense to get drop coverage pull-ups over Wemby.
5) Can Mitch Robinson play more than 13+ minutes?
As for Mitch Robinson, full transparency: I was on his over last game and it cashed, but on putbacks, for the wrong reasons. I've corrected it. He's capped around 13 minutes (free-throw liability, Brown won't risk the hack, and when KAT got in foul trouble in Game 3 Brown went small, not to Mitch). I'm flipping to his under, and played his under 3.5 points as my 3rd official play.
🔮Predictions
- The series turned on the KAT erasure, and the obvious fix is the trap. → KAT under 21.5 P+A
- The Spurs concede the perimeter, and OG is the beneficiary with a lighter defensive load. → OG points over, but better to get LIVE
- Fox is a value at a backup's number with a softer matchup and a long leash. → Fox over 14.5
- Brunson eats volume but not efficiency in single coverage, should play more off-ball with more double-guard looks. → Brunson spot-up shooting overs
- Mitch is capped no matter the script and may not see 13+ minutes (owning the G3 over, it won wrong). → Mitch under
Another grind coming, decided at the margins and at the line like every game in this series. The Spurs have the blueprint, but the Knicks are the more cohesive team and they're home. I'm not touching the moneyline tonight. Let's go to work. Hopefully you enjoyed the article!
