NBA Opening Day Best Bets:
Celtics vs. Pistons Props

Paul George Is Boston’s Free Safety, and Cade Pays the Price

It’s NBA Opening Day, with three games on the slate, and we’ve got two free plays on the opener. Our NBA Opening Day best bets both come from Celtics vs. Pistons, and they come from the same idea: Boston rebuilt its perimeter defense, and Detroit is changing how it runs its offense. Paul George is priced like a coin flip to get two steals in a role built for them, while Cade Cunningham’s assist line is still sitting on last year’s version of his job. We’re backing one over and one under in our NBA player props for Tuesday’s matinee.

Celtics at Pistons Match Details

Location: Detroit, Michigan

Venue: Little Caesars Arena

Date: Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026

Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

Paul George (BOS) Over 1.5 Steals

Can’t Believe This Is Plus Money

Entering Year 17, George doesn’t have to be the star in Boston. Jayson Tatum is the man, and George said his job is “to make this as easy as possible for him.” That frees him up to do what he’s always done best on the other end.

The Free Safety Role

At this stage of his career, George isn’t chasing the other team’s best scorer anymore. Jordan Walsh and Derrick White take the ball handlers, while George gets whoever’s least dangerous and roams as a free safety. Joe Mazzulla is already calling his defense contagious, and Tatum is calling him their defensive playmaker.

The Preseason Backs It Up

George started both preseason games he played and led the team with 7 steals in 49 minutes, plus 6 deflections in one night against Philly. Last year in Philadelphia, he was in the 97th percentile in steals at his position.

Detroit Is the Perfect Matchup

Detroit wants Ausar Thompson handling more to keep Cade fresh, but Ausar doesn’t shoot threes, and neither does Jalen Duren. That lets Boston park George off Ausar and sit him in the gap, waiting on every pass Cade kicks out of help.

Detroit Gives Away the Ball

Detroit gave up the 8th-most steals in the league last year, mostly off bad passes, and Cade alone coughed it up almost four times a night. That’s George’s whole game.

Opening Day Best Bet

I’ve got George around 32 minutes and close to two steals, and the book is giving me even money on Paul George steals. I’ll take that all day. Similar vibes to taking Dyson Daniels steals repeatedly against Cade last year. If you have FanDuel, grab the +100.

Cade Cunningham (DET) Under 9.5 Assists

A New Role for Cade

It’s a new season for Cade, and we’ve already seen a different version of his role. J.B. Bickerstaff has said teams want to wear Cade down, so Detroit’s plan is to keep him fresh by moving him off the ball.

Ausar Is Taking Over the Ball

Ausar shared the ball-handling in the preseason opener and took 10 ball screens in one game, something he did only five times all of last season, while Cade spotted up in the corner. Cade is on board: “It’s just natural for us to use him more in that light.” Every trip Ausar starts is an assist that can’t go on Cade’s line.

Boston Takes Away the Rim

Boston is the worst matchup for the passes Cade has left. The Celtics allowed the fewest assists at the rim in the league last year, about 30% below league average, and Detroit’s offense lives at the rim: lobs to Duren, dump-offs, cutters. That’s why Cade Cunningham assists dropped about 15% per minute against Boston last season, even while he was playing his old role.

A Better Celtics Defense

The other end has gotten tougher too. As a unit, the Celtics got a lot better defensively. Walsh, a top-five on-ball defender, and White, who contested more shots than any guard in the league, replace Jaylen Brown and Anfernee Simons on the perimeter.

Detroit Is Short on Targets

Detroit is also missing Tobias Harris, who caught 4 of Cade’s 14 assists in their January meeting, along with Isaiah Stewart and Caris LeVert.

Opening Day Best Bet

9.5 is basically last year’s 9.9 average sitting on a player in a new role, with new teammates, against a better defense. I think the line is built off the 40-minute playoff nights. I have Cade closer to 34 minutes on Opening Day, and that’s a tough path to 10 assists.