Texas Looks to Roll as Texas State Aims to Keep Pace
Texas opens its season against in-state rival Texas State at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, with the Longhorns entering as a heavy favorite. But this game isn't about who wins, it's about how many points get scored getting there. Both offenses have real firepower, and the defense expected to slow one of them down is breaking in new leadership this week. That combination looks primed to push this total past the number on the board.
Match Details
Location: Austin, Texas
Venue: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Date: Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Sixty Points Needs Both Sides to Show Up
For me, there is simply no question this total needs both sides to show up, but not equally, and that's the whole shape of this play. Texas State's defense is the soft spot on this field: it's been the program's weak side for two straight years, it breaks in a new coordinator this week, and it now faces the deepest collection of skill talent it has ever lined up against.
Texas Is Priced to Score in the Mid-40s Alone
Texas is priced to score in the mid-40s by itself, and I think the Bobcats give up a ton of points here. Quarterback Arch Manning enters year two off a 3,163-yard, 26-touchdown season where he finished as a top-15 adjusted passer after sitting 42nd at midseason, and ran for 399 yards and ten more scores himself, and the reload around him packed in ten Power 4 transfer starters, the ACC's leading rusher Hollywood Smothers, fellow 6.0-a-carry back Raleek Brown, and Cam Coleman, the top receiver in the entire portal, across from five-star Ryan Wingo so nobody gets doubled. If Texas does that heavy lifting, the over doesn't need a shootout, it needs Texas State to chip in two or three scores, and that's the easiest ask on the board given what this offense brings.
Texas State Won't Go Quietly
The Bobcats hung 36.5 a game last season, were the only team in the country in 2024 to clear 3,000 passing and 2,500 rushing yards, and return nearly everything: QB Brad Jackson started all 13 games in his all-conference debut year, and all four of his leading pass-catchers are back, headlined by Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn, both coming off 1,000-yard seasons, both preseason first-team all-league picks.
The Trends Support It
That group draws a Texas pass defense that fell from 2nd to 42nd in passer rating allowed last year, lost both of its drafted All-SEC defensive backs, and is breaking in Will Muschamp calling this defense for the first time since his 2010 unit. Week one is when new schemes leak, and G.J. Kinne's offense has punished far more settled groups than that.
The Best Bet
Texas is priced to score in the mid-40s, and Texas State's offense, which hung 36.5 a game last season and returns nearly everything, gives them the pieces to keep pace. Two new defensive play-callers, two established quarterbacks, and a scoreline that only needs 45-17 to cash.
Over 59.5