After Day 10 finally cracked the goals back open, Day 11 hands us another Group G spot worth attacking. This one is out at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California where Belgium meet Iran. Both nations sit on a single point after opening draws, which means the pressure is already on and the math is simple. Someone needs a result to avoid sweating out the final round. That's exactly the kind of game state that pushes teams forward, and with Belgium's firepower on one side and an Iran side that keeps finding the net on the other, the number I keep coming back to is the Over 2.5 Goals.
Match Details
- Competition: 2026 FIFA World Cup
- Group: Group G
- Venue: SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles Stadium)
- Location: Inglewood, California
- Date: Sunday, June 21, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. PT / 3:00 p.m. ET
Belgium Will Wake Up
Belgium has had an underwhelming start to the World Cup, drawing 1-1 with Egypt. Maybe the result itself wasn't that bad, as Egypt is a solid team. But the offensive performance I expected simply wasn't there, especially given Belgium's attacking talent. It took a second-half Romelu Lukaku introduction just to force the own goal that rescued the point, and the Red Devils looked flat for the hour before it.
That's hard to square with how strong they were offensively during the preparation period and World Cup Qualifiers. In those 12 games, they scored 43 goals in total, which works out to 3.58 per game. Yes, some came against weaker opponents, but they also delivered genuinely impressive performances, including a brilliant 5-2 win over the USA and a 2-0 victory over Croatia.
After dropping points in the opener, Belgium now needs a win to avoid putting themselves in a dangerous position heading into the final round. With the attacking depth Rudi Garcia can roll out, I expect a much better showing here and at least two or three goals. If New Zealand, despite their obvious attacking limitations, managed to score against Iran, a Belgium side with this much quality certainly can as well.
Iran Keep Finding the Net
Iran are dealing with major visa and travel issues, and I believe that could weigh on them more and more as the tournament progresses. Even so, they could be the ones who help us cash this.
They have now scored in five consecutive matches, and against New Zealand they twice came from behind to grab a 2-2 draw. That is not the profile of a team that goes quiet.
We also saw they can be genuinely dangerous from attacking set-pieces, creating good chances from long throw-ins and even scoring from a long cross off a free kick. That one was disallowed, but it still showed they are more than capable of finding the net from those situations. A defensively loose Iran that has to chase the game is exactly what this bet wants.
The Setup
Both sides have every incentive to attack and neither has shown the defensive control to slam the door. Belgium need to prove their opener was a blip and have the firepower to do it. Iran keep scoring and keep leaking.
Two teams under pressure, two leaky back lines, and recent form on both ends all point the same way. When the goals are flowing like this, they tend to keep coming.
The Best Bet
Over 2.5 Goals (1u) | -125 DK, -125 B365, -128 FD
