Premier League:
International Break Betting Update

Erling Haaland leads the Premier League with five goals as Manchester City opened the season with five straight wins. Along with the Citizens, Brighton & Hove Albion have impressed as well with a 3-1-1 record. Meanwhile, notable big names in Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United opened flat.

Five Matchdays In: The Early Picture

We've reached the first international break of the Premier League season, and this one is longer than your normal pauses. The EPL won't be back until Matchday 6 on Saturday Oct. 10, so it's the perfect time to take stock.

Before we dig into the numbers, we asked PropBomb soccer expert Nikola Lalic for his biggest takeaways from the opening month.

Expert Observations: Nikola Lalic

Biggest Surprises

Hull City

The Tigers flipped the switch just before last season's Championship playoffs and found their identity. Given how tough their opening schedule was, nobody expected more than two or three points from the first five rounds. Coach Sergej Jakirović's side collected eight, which is more than anyone predicted.

By the numbers: Hull sit 8th and have kept a clean sheet in three of their first five matches.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

The Seagulls just demolished Arsenal 3-0 in their last game, proving they have to be taken seriously. With 16 goals in five matches, they look unstoppable. Young coach Fabian Hürzeler looks like one of the top managers in the league, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him at one of Europe's biggest clubs soon.

By the numbers: Brighton lead the league in goals (16) and goal difference (+11), and rank second in expected goals (2.04 per game).

Also notable: Leeds United and Brentford, both unbeaten through five with identical 2-3-0 marks.

Biggest Disappointments

Tottenham

By far the biggest disappointment of the season. Spurs spent $400+ million, only to collect two points from the first five rounds. They're sitting at the bottom of the league, and coach Roberto De Zerbi is undoubtedly feeling the heat from fans and pundits alike. The main problem seems to be the lack of a real "number 10," someone to control and create in the final third.

By the numbers: Spurs have scored just two goals and failed to score in four of their five matches.

Also notable: Manchester United and Aston Villa.

Which Team Has Been Incorrectly Priced?

Hull City. The Tigers were the favorites to finish last in the EPL. Right now, they look far more capable than anyone expected.

Which Team Is Currently Overvalued?

Newcastle. The Magpies are doing well under their new head coach despite losing several key players. However, they appear to have been lucky in some games, and that's hardly sustainable. They've created the 16th-fewest xG and the 17th-fewest big chances, and conceded the 3rd-most xG (9.1). They're also the worst pressing team in the league, with the fewest possessions won in the final third per game.

By the numbers: Newcastle sit 9th with a goal difference of zero.

Which Team Is a Good 'Buy-Low' Club?

Bournemouth. The Cherries are one of only three winless teams and sit 17th with just three points. But they've faced one of the toughest schedules so far, including losses to Liverpool (0-1) and Man City (1-2). They've played well and simply couldn't convert that into points. I don't expect them among the top teams, but they're more than capable of finishing in the top half.

Title Futures: The Market Still Believes in Arsenal

City are perfect, but the books still have Arsenal as the title favorite despite the three-point gap and that 3-0 loss at Brighton. Spurs at +30000 have been one of the most popular title bets on the board, which says more about fan loyalty than form. Brighton at +4000 may be the most interesting number for anyone who buys Lalic's take on the Seagulls.

Odds Subject to Change

Free-Roll Bet

We asked Nikola Lalic for a futures best bet, and he went looking in the bottom half of the table. Aston Villa sit 15th with four points, and he thinks that's a buying opportunity.

He explained his stance, "Aston Villa have struggled after losing important players, but they always seem to find a way to handle departures over a season. With Johan Manzambi back and Leon Goretzka returning soon, I expect them to find some much-needed stability. Coach Unai Emery is one of the best in the EPL and will get them into the top 10 at least."

Best Game to Watch in October

Liverpool vs. Manchester City (Sun Oct. 11, 11:30 a.m. ET)

Andoni Iraola's Liverpool have shown both good and bad things this season. The potential is there; they just need time to click. It will be fascinating to see them against a Manchester City side that has looked great at times and very solid overall under its new head coach.

Also circle: Manchester United vs. Tottenham (Sat Oct. 10, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Two teams that have underwhelmed and are under pressure to turn things around quickly. It's one of the first games back after the international break, and a loss could very well cost one of these coaches his job.

Inside the Numbers: The Season So Far

Fifty matches are in the books, and the draw has been a major player.

Results

Home Wins: 36%

Draws: 32%

Away Wins: 32%

Five teams remain unbeaten: Man City, Brentford, Leeds, Everton and Liverpool.

Goals

2.82 goals per match (141 in 50 games)

Over 2.5 goals: 52%

Both teams to score: 50%

The Table

City (15 pts) lead Arsenal (12) and Brighton (10). Brentford, Leeds, Everton and Liverpool are level on nine. At the bottom, Bournemouth, Fulham and Tottenham are still searching for their first win, and Coventry have scored just one goal all season.

Home and Away

City and Arsenal are perfect at home. Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Coventry have yet to earn a home point.

Late Drama

If you've been turning games off at halftime, you've been missing the action.

-- 55% of goals have come in the second half.

-- The 81st–90th minute has been the busiest 10-minute window, with 21% of all goals.

-- 38% of matches have been scoreless at halftime, the most common halftime scoreline by far.

Slow first halves haven't meant quiet games, and that's worth keeping in mind for halftime unders, second-half overs and live betting.

Totals & BTTS Breakdown

The Over Teams

Chelsea have gone Over 2.5 goals in all five matches, averaging 4.4 goals per game, and three of the games have gone Over 3.5 goals.

Brighton and Newcastle have both gone Over 2.5 goals in four of their first five.

Crystal Palace have been the wildest: three of their five matches produced five or more goals, two of them losers (2-3, 1-4).

The Under Teams

Leeds and Everton have only seen one game this season with at least three combined goals scored.

Nottingham Forest matches have been the quietest in the league. Only two of five cleared 1.5 goals, and they've been shut out three times.

Arsenal have the league's stingiest profile at the top end. No Gunners match has produced more than three goals all season, making Under 3.5 a perfect 5-0. They've allowed just four goals, and three of those came in the last game before the break at Brighton. Note that Under 2.5 is a different story, having gone 2-3 with Arsenal.

Both Teams to Score

If you're looking for crackers with plenty of offense, then keep an eye on Newcastle, Chelsea and Bournemouth. All three have watched BTTS 'Yes' markets go 4-1 this season.

On the opposite side at that spectrum is Coventry, who sits 5-0 to BTTS 'No' on the season. The club has scored 1 goal, coming in their last game which was a 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest.

Tottenham are 4-1 to the BTTS 'No' wagers with the scoreless streak stopping in a 2-3 loss to Aston Villa just before the break.