WNBA Playoffs Best Bets: Two Must-Win Games, Two Unders
Two home teams face elimination Wednesday night, and both come down to the same thing: neither can win a shootout, so both need to drag the game into the mud. Atlanta visits Washington, and Golden State visits Dallas. Here's the breakdown on both.
Dream vs Mystics Playoffs Best Bet
Match Details
Matchup: WNBA Playoffs, First Round, Game 2
Series: Dream lead 1-0
Location: Washington, D.C.
Venue: CareFirst Arena
Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Washington Has to Slow It Down
Last game was played at the Atlanta Dream's pace, if you ask me. Atlanta was fourth in pace during the regular season and wanted to take Washington out of its slow, ugly play style early. This worked, and Atlanta cruised to an easy victory.
I think this game will be different for the Mystics. At home in a win-or-go-home matchup, I like the Mystics to slow it down and really try to muck this one up. I still think Atlanta wins, as it is comfortable in a lot of different styles, but I like the total to stay under here.
Why the Under Is the Play
Washington needs to establish its presence down low. The Mystics can't get into a shootout with the Dream and expect to be competitive. Give me the home squad to rough it up enough to have this cruise under.
WNBA Best Bet
Under Dream-Mystics 166.5
Odds subject to change
Valkyries vs Wings Playoffs Best Bet
Match Details
Matchup: WNBA Playoffs, First Round, Game 2
Series: Valkyries lead 1-0
Location: Arlington, Texas
Venue: College Park Center
Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The League's Best Defense Shows Up
I just don't see much of a chance that Golden State has a stinker defensively. The Valkyries were the best defense from start to finish during the regular season, and they held Dallas to 31 points in the first half of Game 1.
Game 1 Was an Outlier
Yes, I know the Wings finished over 76.5 even with the horrendous start, but you have to look at the game script. The Valkyries had an outlier shooting night and were so far ahead they didn't have to exert maximum effort defensively to win. This game for Dallas at home should be a max-effort, try-to-even-the-series type of game.
I still love the Valkyries here, but I love the team total under for Dallas more. Even in a world where Dallas covers or wins, I think that requires a gross, low-scoring win of something like 74-68. The Wings just don't match up well here, and I believe the Valkyries win the series 2-0. But I don't think the Valkyries can score at the level they did last game, so they will have to maintain their defensive effort to bring it home.
WNBA Best Bet
Wings Team Total Under 76.5
Odds subject to change
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