The Atlanta Braves enter 2025 coming off a 89-win season that ended in the Wild Card round, falling short of expectations after losing Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. early. Key veterans like Max Fried and Charlie Morton are gone, leaving the rotation full of question marks despite strong bullpen depth. With Strider expected back by late April and Acuña targeting a May return, the Braves remain a contender, but their ceiling hinges on health and internal development.
History & Projections
2024 Record: 89-73 (2nd NLE - Wild Card)
2025 Win Total Open: 94.5
2025 Projection: 90-72
Key Additions
- Jurickson Profar (LF)
- Bryan De La Cruz (RH)
- Ronald Acuna Jr (RH, injury - target May?)
- Spencer Strider (injury - target late April)
Key Departures
- Max Fried (NYY)
- Charlie Morton (BAL)
- A.J. Minter (NYM)
- Travis d'Arnauud (LAA)
- Jorge Soler (LAA)
- Ramon Laureano (BAL)
Projected Rotation
- Chris Sale
- Spencer Schwellenbach
- Reynaldo Lopez
- Grant Holmes
- Ian Anderson/ AJ Smith-Shawver
- Depth: Depth: Spencer Strider (late April), Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep
Projected Bullpen
- Closer: Rasiel Iglesias
- Setup: Joe Jimenez
- Leverage: Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer, Dylan Lee, Daysbel Hernandez
- Bulk: Angel Perdomo, Domingo Gonzalez, Grant Holmes
Depth Chart
- C: Sean Murphy, Drake Baldwin
- 1B: Matt Olson
- 2B: Ozzie Albies, Nick Allen
- 3B: Austin Riley, Luke Williams
- SS: Orlando Arcia, Nick Allen
- LF: Jurickson Profar, Jarred Kelenic
- CF: Michael Harris, Eli White
- RF: Bryan De La Cruz, Ronald Acuna Jr
- DH: Marcell Ozuna
Key Strength
Bullpen -- Atlanta finished 3rd in bullpen ERA last season (3.32) and 4th in opponent's wOBA (.287), just behind CLE and MIL, both elite units last season. The 2025 version of this group will be without longtime Brave A.J. Minter, but they still have a stable of strong arms available. Iglesias, Jimenez, Holmes, Lee, and Bummer all posted a sub-3.00 FIP last season on more than 30 IP. Daysbel Hernandez was also rock-solid in his limited action last season (18 IP) and this shouldn't come as a shock given how good he was in AAA before getting the call (2.59 ERA / 11.3 K/9). The Braves will also add a couple of additional high-upside arms in Angel Perdomo and Domingo Gonzalez. Perdomo is a fastball/slider lefty that showed a ton of promise in 2023 with PIT before missing all last season due to injury. Gonzalez spent last season between AA and AAA, but held an impressive 14.2 K/9 over 52 innings. He may not break camp with the big club, but he should certainly make his debut at some point this season and could add some serious depth to this bullpen. This unit looks primed to perform at an elite level once again and should rank toward the top of the league.
Biggest Question
Starting rotation (hear me out) -- on paper this rotation has immense talent, but there are question marks everywhere with this unit. Chris Sale tossed 177 innings last season which is more than he threw combined in the previous 4 seasons. Schwellenbach might be the most stable member of the rotation, but he has just 123 big-league innings under his belt. Reynaldo Lopez was dynamite last season in his first season as a full-time starter, but his peripherals all pointed toward him being a league-average pitcher so regression is very likely this season. Ian Anderson at one time had a ton of promise, but missed all of 2023 with injury and spent last season in the minors after returning. He should get a shot at being in this rotation, but it's a huge unknown on what they should expect. Grant Holmes and A.J. Smith-Shawver are both guys that could be solid pieces at the back of the rotation, but again they're both largely unproven at this level.
The return of Spencer Strider will be a huge boost to this rotation, but I've tempered my expectations for him this season. After making just 2 starts in 2024, Strider is expected back sometime in late April / early May from his internal brace surgery. Coming back from this type of procedure is tough enough already, but returning mid-season adds another layer of uncertainty. I personally wouldn't be surprised to see him a bit vulnerable in his first few months back, but I also wouldn't be shocked if he returned to form in the 2nd half of the season.
The range of outcomes for this rotation might be wider than any team in the league. If Sale, Schwellenbach, and Lopez produce then this is a fringe top-5 rotation, but if injuries or regression hit then I wouldn't be surprised to see a below average finish. The talent is certainly there, but we'll see how it plays out.
My Expectations
Losing Acuna and Strider early in 2024 were obviously massive losses, but even getting those guys back this season it's tough to see them being significantly better. Acuna has now had ACL surgery on both knees so it's very likely he's lost some of his explosiveness that made him one of the most exciting players in the league. I don't expect Strider to be himself when he returns and losing Fried + Morton leave this rotation in a vulnerable spot. The loss of Travis d'Arnaud could also be massive if Sean Murphy is forced to miss any time. [UPDATE: News released this morning than Murphy is expected to miss 4-6 weeks to begin season - Drake Baldwin likely to be on Opening Day roster]
All things considered, this is a very good team, but I have them a couple wins shy of the Phillies in the NL East. I do, however, feel they are better equipped to make a deeper run into the postseason with their dominant bullpen and front-line starters (Strider, Sale, and Schwellenbach). If they get into the postseason with those 3 healthy, this team will have as good a chance as anyone at upsetting the Dodgers and claiming the NL pennant.